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Best case/worst case for each Big 12 team

I take a look at the best case and worst scenarios for all 10 Big 12 teams. What bowls are in play, and who has a chance to win it.

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Photo Attribution: USATSI

Photo Attribution: USATSI

This is the best time of the year, isn’t it?

The time of the year when Kansas has as the same chance as Alabama of going undefeated. That ends 30 minutes into the second Saturday of the season[1. Kansas scheduled a bye its first week which is…hilarious.], but now, the possibilities are endless. It is spring training for college football junkies and pitchers and catchers are about to report.

With that, let me dash your dreams upon the rocks of reality and give you a best case/worst case for each Big 12 team this season. In alphabetical order…

Baylor

Best: 10-2, Big 12 champions, Fiesta Bowl
Worst: 7-5, middle of the Big 12, Pinstripe Bowl

Comments: I really feel like this team is being underrated by everybody. They have one of the two best offenses in the Big 12 (on any given week) and if the defense does anything (breathing and jogging might be enough) they’ll win eight games. Could see a sneaky Big 12 title from them this year like Kansas State last season (though it would come in a completely different manner — namely, with about a million points).

Iowa State

Best: 7-5, middle of the Big 12, Pinstripe Bowl
Worst: 3-9, bottom of the Big 12, no Bowl

Comments: The problem for Iowa State is their non-conference schedule. They play N. Iowa, Iowa and Tulsa…then a string of Texas, Tech, Baylor, OSU, KSU, TCU, and OU. That’s a 1-9 start just waiting to happen. I don’t think it will, but it could.

Kansas

Best: Andrew Wiggins stays another year and no NBA teams come after Self
Worst: 4-8, bottom of Big 12, no Bowl

Comments: Seriously LOLing here that Kansas scheduled a bye in its first week. Their marketing department going into the S. Dakota game: “you know who hasn’t lost yet? Georgia, Bama, Oregon, and that’s right, your Kansas Jayhawks!”

Kansas State

Best: 9-3, second or third in Big 12, Alamo Bowl
Worst: 6-6, middle of Big 12, Texas Bowl

Comments: I know they have the wizardly old man but they lost a lot. They basically have Tyler Lockett and a bunch of people you’ve never heard of coming back this year so it really speaks to Snyder that I think they could still go 9-3 and get to the Alamo Bowl.

Oklahoma

Best: 10-2, Big 12 champions, Fiesta Bowl
Worst: 7-5, middle of Big 12, BWW Bowl

Comments: It’s weird to think that OU’s floor is this low, but look at their schedule. Which of the following games could they not lose: at ND, TCU in Norman, Texas in Dallas, at KSU, at Baylor, and at OSU? Now, I don’t think there’s any way at all they lose all of them so I bumped their floor a little, but in a vacuum it’s possible, right? [does mock Belldozer dance with right arm and screams “CHOO! CHOO!” at computer and it feels SO GOOD!]

Oklahoma State

Best: 11-1, Big 12 champions, Fiesta Bowl
Worst: 8-4, near top of Big 12, Holiday Bowl

Comments: OSU’s schedule keeps it from falling to that 7-5 floor. Four of its five toughest Big 12 games are at home and even though I don’t think the Cowboys are much (if it all better) than OU, they have a much more favorable path to the Big 12 title. The bigger question for me is the ceiling. You don’t look at any of the games and say “no way!” but I also know how freaking difficult it is mentally to run the table, heck, even to go 11-1. As a whole I just don’t think there’s any possible way this team wins 12 games[1. I don’t really think 11 is on the table either but hey, SPRING TRAINING!] and Gundy has to be at least a little bit worried that anything less than nine is kind of a bummer.

Texas

Best: 11-1, Big 12 champions, Fiesta Bowl
Worst: 8-4, middle of the Big 12, Holiday Bowl, Mack gone

Comments: They’re much like OSU in that a hearty schedule should buoy them throughout the conference slog. The Horns will only board three planes all year[1. I’m not giving them a bowl outside of the state of Texas yet!] as the rest of their games are south of the Red River. Yes, I know David Ash would have been, like, the 18th best QB in the Big 12 in 2009 but this is 2013 and they return all but two starters from a pretty good defense last year.

TCU

Best: 9-3, Big 12 champions, Fiesta Bowl
Worst: 7-5, middle of Big 12, Texas Bowl

Comments: Do we totally know what we’re getting from Pachall yet? Also, the reason I have TCU at a 9-3 ceiling is that I think every other Big 12 contender can sweep its non-conference schedule, I don’t think TCU can beat LSU though. How weird would it be for a 9-3 team (7-2 in conference) to win the Big 12?

Texas Tech

Best: 9-3, top of Big 12, Cotton Bowl
Worst: 5-7, middle of Big 12, Texas Bowl

Comments: [throws hands up in air, Googles Ryan Gosling pictures for photoshop purposes later, draws random numbers out of hat, looks at schedule again, moves on to West Virginia].

West Virginia

Best: 7-5, middle of Big 12, Holiday Bowl
Worst: 5-7, bottom of Big 12, no bowl

Comments: Look, I know what you’re thinking: “how can a team that only went 7-6 last year with Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin, and Geno Smith turn the trick again in 2013?” I’m not saying I think they will, only that if everything falls right, they could. And that fact along has to worry my main man Dana and his agent.[1. If he has one. For all we know he just walks into contract meetings playing NCAA ’14 on a PSP and screams obscenities until somebody caves.]

Your thoughts?

Oh, and as always, I hate your team.

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