Handicapping The Path to a Big 12 Title for Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is undefeated on the season, but, as promising as that statement may sound, its record through Week 8 (!) is just 4-0. So there’s a lot of ball yet to be played, and for OSU, the schedule really gets tough from here on out.

But 4-0 is 4-0. OSU sits tied atop the Big 12 standings and has as good a shot since 2013 to win the league given recent developments that include OU losing two conference games, K-State losing its starting quarterback and Texas doing Texas things in a 2-2 start to its conference schedule.

So, realistically, what are OSU’s chances of winning its second-ever Big 12 championship? I had that question and took a stab at handicapping the race below, with a look at each matchup and the odds of OSU advancing in each.

Oct. 31: Home game vs. Texas

Texas is no cake walk, and as much as we love to clown the ‘Horns, they could be 5-0 just as easily as they’re 3-2. Their two losses — to TCU and to OU — were by a combined 10 points. Nevertheless, OSU has this one at home this week and has some momentum at its sails. Pumped for a Jim Knowles vs. Mike Yurcich showdown.

Odds of winning: 54%

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Nov. 7: Road game vs. Kansas State

Oklahoma State always has a tough time in Manhattan. The Cowboys lost 31-12 in 2018, barely won 43-37 in 2016, lost 48-14 (!) in 2014. But my confidence meter is running a bit higher than normal this year, with QB Skylar Thompson lost for the season.

Odds of winning: 68%

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Nov. 21: Road game vs. OU

Swing game on the schedule. A win and OSU can probably allow itself to start dreaming real big. A loss, and OSU’s suddenly back to earth with its back against the wall. OSU seems to fare somewhat well in Norman, with its last win in the series coming in 2014 on OU’s home turf. But this is the one I have the least confidence in.

Odds of winning: 41%

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Nov. 28: Home game vs. Texas Tech

Probably the most surprising loss from last season was OSU falling 45-35 to Tech in Lubbock. It was a forgettable outing for Spencer Sanders, who threw three picks and really struggled. Revenge game for him on deck at home.

Odds of winning: 72.3%

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Dec. 5: Road game vs. TCU

Look, I know TCU just might not be good. It is 1-3 on the season. But those three losses are to Iowa State by 3, K-State by 7 and OU — in a game that got away from them — by 19. The Horned Frogs are probably much better than their record indicates. Hate this spot for OSU, and feel pretty queasy about going to Fort Worth to try and pull this one off.

Odds of winning: 57%

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Dec. 12: Road game vs. Baylor

It would be fitting for the game that got rescheduled from early in the season to the end of the regular season to end up disrupting OSU’s Big 12 title hopes, wouldn’t it? Just thinking about it gives me 2011 Iowa State vibes. And playing on the road is suboptimal! We’ll know a lot more about this Baylor team in a month, but this one, surprisingly, I’m feeling OK about. If OSU needs a win to get into the conference title game, I think they go in and get the job done.

Odds of winning: 64%

Dec. 12 or 19: Big 12 championship game