What are Oklahoma State’s bowl scenarios?

Photo Attribution: USATSI

I’ve held off on looking at OSU’s bowl projection for a long time — mostly because projecting bowls in September and October feels like trying to choose a wife when you’re eight years old.

But I can’t do it anymore. With one week left in the season it’s time to look at where Oklahoma State is going to end up this postseason.

With a Bedlam win…

Oklahoma State will play in the Fiesta Bowl. No questions asked. Baylor can hang that co-champs banner as high as they want at Floyd Casey II but they won’t have the BCS uni patch to prove it.

As for which team OSU will play, that’s a little more complex.

If Northern Illinois beats Bowling Green on Friday night[1. We know how that goes…] as a three-point favorite then Northern Illinois will be the Fiesta Bowl’s choice. That sucks, not because No. Ill. isn’t good but because it’s a Boise State situation for the Pokes. Lose-lose.

What if Northern Illinois loses that game, though?

The problem, if you want a big-boy matchup for OSU, is that the Fiesta is selecting last this year in the BCS team draft. The order is Orange-Sugar-Fiesta. So if UNI loses the Fiesta would likely be left to take the American Athletic champion which as Matt Hinton outlined here, if Central Florida beats SMU on Saturday, is Central Florida.[1. And probably even if UCF loses to SMU as well..]

Barf.

Last year the Fiesta had first pick and took Oregon. This year the first pick will be Clemson. That would have been fun.

With a Bedlam loss and Baylor win…

This gets dicey.

If OSU loses and Baylor wins, Baylor goes to the Fiesta Bowl and OSU would be tied with OU and Texas at 7-2 in Big 12 play. So what happens with ties? Probably exactly what you’d think.

The Big 12 bowl order goes like this:

1. Fiesta
2. Cotton
3. Alamo
4. Buffalo Wild Wings
5. Holiday
6. Texas
7. Pinstripe

So if OU, OSU, and Texas were all tied the Cotton would likely take Texas to have a big-time Texas-LSU matchup. The Alamo would probably take OU because, well, they provide better ratings. And, as Gina Mizell pointed out yesterday, OSU would likely fall to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

Don’t believe me?

Last year OSU and Texas both went 5-4 in conference and the Alamo Bowl took Texas. Not to mention the BWW took TCU and the Holiday took Baylor, both of which had worse records than OSU in conference!

With a Bedlam loss and Texas win…

This gets really dicey.

This also almost guarantees either the Alamo or BWW for OSU. Texas will go to the Fiesta (my gosh), the Cotton will almost certainly take Baylor (Dallas fans!), and the Alamo will be left to choose between OSU and OU and, again, that’s a pretty easy choice for the Alamo. Oregon will probably be the opponent, though, so either Oklahoma team would be a compelling matchup.

In either Bedlam loss scenario I don’t think OSU gets the Cotton Bowl. I think it’s between the Fiesta, Alamo, and Buffalo Wild Wings.

The lesson here?

Bedlam is monstrous. You don’t want Baylor or Texas going to the Fiesta while you’re torching Nebraska in the homeless man’s Fiesta Bowl right after Christmas.