Even Mike Gundy doesn’t fully understand the Big 12’s tiebreaker procedures to get into the conference championship game in Arlington on Dec. 2. He does know one thing for sure, though: the Cowboys probably won’t get in unless they win their last two regular-season games. 

Despite suffering its second conference loss Saturday to UCF, Oklahoma State is still in the vehicle for a trip to Arlington. But, unlike a week ago, just winning out won’t get OSU inside AT&T Stadium. 

OSU’s loss, plus West Virginia and Kansas losses, created a four-way tie for second place in the Big 12 among OSU, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Iowa State. Texas is at the top of the conference with only one loss to OU. 

That four-team tie and the results that influenced it have created mass confusion on what needs to happen for each team to punch its ticket to Arlington. The tiebreaker procedures are so puzzling that the Big 12 even had to clarify one particular situation, and then realized it needed to be updated and clarified again. I actually wrote all of this a day earlier the first time but had to update it because of that change. I also tried to explain procedures and outcomes the best I could in this week’s Big 12 Update on Sunday, but now most of that is null.

There’s a website, bball.notnothing.net, that let’s you enter all the possible Big 12 results and how the final standings would wind up because of those particular results. I took the time to figure out three possible (and most logical) arrangements of results for the next two weeks that put the Pokes in Arlington. Hopefully this will create some sort of better understanding for what Cowboy fans should look out and hope for. 

For reference: the winning team is in bold

Scenario 1

Week 12

OU at BYU

Texas at ISU

K-State at KU

OSU at Houston

Week 13

TCU at OU

Texas Tech at Texas

ISU at K-State

BYU at OSU

Outcome: The most notable results from this scenario are KU upsetting K-State, then the Wildcats rebounding to beat ISU. That gives both K-State and ISU at least three losses, bumping them out of the race. The KU upset is for good measure so the winner of ISU-KSU doesn’t necessarily matter. So to go with this scenario, K-State could beat KU but lose to ISU. The outcome would be the same as long as K-State and ISU both lose again one. 

It then comes down to that last Bedlam matchup for a head-to-head tie breaker. You could also add OU getting upset by BYU or TCU here, and that would only make things easier on the Cowboys.

Championship: OSU vs. Texas

Scenario 2

Week 12

OU at BYU

Texas at ISU

K-State at KU

OSU at Houston

Week 13

TCU at OU

Texas Tech at Texas

ISU at K-State

BYU at OSU

Outcome: In this scenario, Texas, OSU, OU and K-State all won out, with ISU losing the rest of the way. Obviously that still has Texas playing in the title game as the No. 1 seed. It creates a three-way tie for second, though, between OSU, OU and K-State. This is when that new rule comes into play. Before Tuesday, OSU was likely to get left out here despite beating K-State and OU during the season. The fact OU and K-State won’t play triggered the tiebreaker rule that was worded to cause the odd scenario where OSU’s head-to-head wins wouldn’t matter. But common sense prevailed and, after the rule change, OSU now benefits from this outcome. 

Championship: OSU vs. Texas

Scenario 3

Week 12

OU at BYU

Texas at ISU

K-State at KU

OSU at Houston

Week 13

TCU at OU

Texas Tech at Texas

ISU at K-State

BYU at OSU

Outcome: This is a fun one. Or a nightmare. Texas may seem untouchable right now, but no one’s safe from staying home on Dec. 2. In this scenario, OSU, OU and ISU win out. The result that caused the most chaos is ISU upsetting Texas this week. With just that one extra loss, the Longhorns are removed from Big 12 contention. K-State got a third loss, so it’s also done. We get a four-way tie between OSU, OU, ISU and Texas. And that last Bedlam wasn’t actually the last Bedlam.

Notable from this scenario, though, is that if K-State beats ISU after the Cyclones upset Texas, then K-State plays OU instead of OSU even with the tiebreaker update. Unless K-State happened to lose to KU the week before and got a third loss. 

Championship: OSU vs. OU