What to Expect from Second Round Wide Receivers Like James Washington

Since 2000 there have been 81 wide receivers taken in the second round of the NFL Draft. James Washington, taken with the 60th pick in 2018, was No. 80. I was curious about what the expectation should be for production from somebody taken in this range so I went back and looked at all 81 players taken to get some career averages from them. Here’s what I found.

Career average (2nd round WR)

Games: 71
Games started: 43
Catches: 211
Yards: 2,836
TD: 17

These numbers are mildly skewed because obviously some second round picks from 2016 or 2017 have yet to finish their careers. But because I’m going to compare them to first round picks below, I’m ok with that statistical quirk.

The best of this group is Anquan Bolden (pick No. 54 in 2003). He has 1,076 catches for nearly 14,000 yards and 81 TDs. The only other player to crack the 10,000-yard barrier is Chad Johnson (No. 36 in 2001). DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Deion Branch were all second round picks, too. As was Pittsburgh’s own JuJu Smith-Schuster (No. 62 in 2017), who was incredibly productive in 2017.

As far as busts go, Limas Sweed (No. 53 in 2008) is near the top of the list. He was picked by …….. Pittsburgh and totaled just seven catches for 69 yards in his career. Sinorice Moss, Ryan Broyles and Terrence Murphy are all among the bottom feeders as well.

There have been just two players — Golden Tate out of Notre Dame and Tyrone Calico out of Middle Tennessee State — picked at exactly No. 60 like Washington. Tate has been awesome (6,400 yards and 34 TDs in 122 games). Calico was less so (500 yards and 4 TDs in 27 games).

Career average (1st round WR)

Games: 80
Games started: 59
Catches: 294
Yards: 4,051
TD: 26

It should be no surprise that first round wide receivers have, on average, much better careers than those picked in the second round. The biggest difference is probably in catches and yards,  but all the numbers showed marked improvement from their second round counterparts.

Since 2000, a total of 75 wideouts have been selected in the first round. Among them are Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White and Santana Moss. All of those are 10,000-yard producers, and Julio Jones, Damaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and A.J. Green could join them soon. The biggest busts? R. Jay Soward and ……………. Rashaun Woods.

Anyway, this tells us absolutely nothing about James Washington’s future, but it does set some expectations for what is considered good and what is considered bad from somebody taken with the 60th pick in the draft. I fully expect Washington to fall somewhere between average for a second rounder and Golden Tate, who has essentially doubled up those averages.

Pittsburgh can hide him between a second rounder (Smith-Schuster) and a sixth rounder (Antonio Brown), and he should thrive. And with the number of players OSU has had fall by the wayside in recent drafts, Washington will hopefully (hopefully!) be a nice reprieve.