Notes from OKC Dave’s 2024 OSU Fan Survey Results

The Oklahoma State fanbase’s expectations are set and documented.

OKC Dave released the results of his annual fan survey (which you can view here). You should look at Dave’s deep dive into the results because he does a great job of looking at myriad aspects and providing context through his years of conducting the survey. But, here are a few things that stood out to me.

Sipping Kool-Aid or a Fanbase Full of Realists?

Vegas lines for OSU’s win total in 2024 have hovered around 7.5. With all that the Cowboys are returning this season, that just seems rather low. But that is, of course, easy for us to say as we’re all so focused on the Cowboys. Is that just a bit of Kool-Aid drinking? Or could it be this fanbase has a better hold on reality than most?

Well, from Dave’s lengthy simulations, the fan base has picked the Cowboys to win 8.5 games — a full game more than Vegas. That would point to Kool-Aid, but Dave slipped down this incredibly interesting note:

“Over the last 16 seasons, fans participating in the survey have predicted a total of 135 regular season wins. The team has won 138 games in that span.”

That’s nearly spot on from OSU fans, and if anything, the Pokes’ faithful has predicted three fewer wins than the team has actually achieved.

The Big 12’s Parity

Dave describes “gimme” games as games in which OSU fans predict the Cowboys have an 85+ percentage chance of winning. The Pokes have just one of those this season (Tulsa). That’s tied with last season for the fewest “gimme” games the Cowboys have had on their schedule since Dave started recording this in 2011.

But at the same time, OSU fans give the Cowboys 65% odds of making the Big 12 title game. That’s the highest percentage fans have predicted since the title games reimplementation in 2017.

So, few guaranteed wins, but a high chance at playing for a conference crown. To me, that is a highlight on how fun this league is going to be this year. And it’s made all the more fun that this parity is taking place during what appears to be an upswing for the Pokes.

Utah Dethrones OU

For every season since 2009, Dave has asked, ‘If I could pick one game for OSU to win this year, it would be …” and from 2009 to 2023, that answer has been OU.

Well, it physically can’t be OU this season. The Sooners are in the SEC, and Bedlam won’t happen in football. Instead, it was Utah.

The Utes are entering their first season in the Big 12, and they’re picked to win the league. I imagine that’s where a lot of the votes come from — wanting to beat the team that is predicted to win the conference. But this could be the first glimpse into a new potential rival for the Cowboys. If Utah and its fanbase come into the league acting as if the Utes run the place, OSU fans will take up arms, not only for the Cowboys, but for the Big 12 originals (the Hateful Eight, as they’ve become known). It could be just what this conference needs — a rivalry the pits one of the old guard vs. one of the newcomers.

The Rollercoaster of National Expectations

What stands out to me about this graph is not that the percentage is down from where it was from 2011 to 2017, but rather the four most recent data points. It’s a perfect visualization of what being a college football fan is like.

Going into the 2021 season, hopes were down. The Cowboys hit a survey-low 24% in the prompt.

But then the Cowboys won the Fiesta Bowl. Hopes shot back up — not to the highs of 2012 or anything, but up 18 percentage points to 42% … only for the Cowboys to lay an egg in 2022, plummeting this vote back down to 26% going into 2023. But then in 2023, the Cowboys won again, rattling off 10 wins and appearing in the Big 12 title game.

The hope is alive again at 41%. OSU fans will hope this rollercoaster stops its dips here. If anything, this serves as a reminder that even if this season doesn’t go as planned, there is still hope of another high not too far down the road.

Basketball Expectations

Jumping briefly into hoops to close things out: it feels like OSU fans are walking into this new basketball era cautiously. Who can blame them given how much this program has been sputtering as of late?

For starters, new coach Steve Lutz has a 28% approval rating, but that is skewed largely from “unsure” votes rather than “disapprove” votes. That is a lower approval rating than Mike Boynton ever had. But Boynton’s Year 1 was 30% to Lutz’s 28%, so it’s all fairly similar. Boynton got up to 95% in Year 2, so anything is possible.

Similarly, OSU fans gave their team a 36% chance of making the NCAA Tournament this season — the lowest percentage since Dave started recording.

But with that said, there is a glimmer of hope piercing through. Thirty-four percent of fans voted that Lutz would lead the Cowboys to a conference title within the next five years. That’s up four percentage points from where the fanbase voted last season.  So, though it’s not like the fanbase is counting down the days before basketball season, the coaching change has sparked a bit more faith in the future of the program.