What Our 100 College Football 25 Simulations Say Is Still Possible for OSU’s 2024 Season

If this needs to be said, this should not be taken seriously at all. But after another not-so-fun Saturday for the Cowboys, I thought it might be nice to have a little fun and see what a video game thinks is still possible for the Pokes’ 2024 season.

Back in August we simulated Oklahoma State’s football season 100 times. Five games into the year, let’s dive back into that spreadsheet and see what’s left.

There were 18 simulations that saw OSU start the year 3-2 in this manner (wins against the nonconference foes before starting Big 12 play 0-2). Among those 18 sims that predicted the season would play out this way, the Cowboys’ average record to finish the regular season was 7.8-4.2, so let’s call it 8-2.

Looking immediately to OSU’s next game, OSU beat West Virginia 10 times and lost eight. Here is a look at the percentage chance each of these 18 sims give the Pokes in their remaining regular season games. In parenthesis, I’ll put the percentage chance it gave OSU to win each game in all 100 sims:

West Virginia — 56% (62%)
at BYU — 61% (65%)
at Baylor — 67% (71%)
Arizona State — 78% (81%)
at TCU — 78% (80%)
Texas Tech — 78% (59%)
at Colorado — 61%  (58%)

So, the game says OSU has better than a 50% chance to win each remaining game, but many of those percentages have dropped slightly. Somehow OSU’s 3-2 start means the Pokes are much more likely to beat Texas Tech, though, which is interesting.

Among these 18 simulations, OSU did make the Big 12 title game once — and the Pokes won it, no less. So, if you’re a Cowboy fan, Sim 56 is this dream. This simulation saw OSU finish the regular season 10-2, win the Big 12, make the College Football Playoff and finish at No. 5 in the final AP Poll.

Perhaps the craziest part of all of these simulations is the fact that OSU made the CFP in four of these 18 sims despite making the Big 12 title game just once. In one sim (Sim 44), OSU somehow managed to turn its 3-2 start into an appearance in the national title game, finishing the year 13-3. Could you imagine? Movies would be made.

Among the 18 simulations in question, Utah won the Big 12 more than any other team, doing so on seven occasions. Kansas State won the league in four of those sim. UCF did so twice, and Colorado, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Kansas all joined OSU with one Big 12 title in the simulations. I should caveat this entire paragraph, though, with the fact that I didn’t track the results of every game for every team, so I have no clue how the game thought Utah, K-State or any other team would do in as much detail as OSU.

If you’re worried about OSU’s bowl streak, the Cowboys won at least six regular season games in 17 of the 18 remaining simulations. The only time OSU failed to reach bowl eligibility came in Sim 64, where OSU finished 5-7 with remaining losses to West Virginia, BYU, Baylor, Arizona State and Colorado.

OSU finished the regular season 10-2 in three of the remaining 18 simulations, so if it’s any consolation, a video game thinks it more likely that the Cowboys win every regular season game left than finish short of bowl eligibility.

So, perhaps the Cowboys, like last season, are in for another turnaround after a wonky start. Or perhaps here in a few weeks, we’ll all click on our PlayStations and make our own fantasy worlds for the 2024 season.