Roundtable: Discussing Oklahoma State’s Defensive Struggles and Why We’re Excited for Winter Sports

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Crossover season is upon us, as Oklahoma State’s winter sports got rolling this week.

But the Cowboy football season is also still going full-steam ahead, as the Pokes look to bounce back from a loss to Iowa State The PFB writers got together Thursday morning and discussed where we’re at with the OSU defense and our excitement levels for sports in Gallagher-Iba Arena.

Tyler Waldrep: Assuming Oklahoma State’s defense doesn’t improve how many more games will this team win in the regular season?

Kyle Cox: That’s a tough one because if you would have asked a similar question before last week’s trip to Iowa State, I would have probably still picked a win in Ames just based on an offense that can score nearly 50.

With a defensive performance like that, OSU’s offense needs to be nearly perfect. So, through that lens, I say they would 2-2 the rest of the regular season.

Marshall Scott: The crazy thing is with how good the offense is and some good moments the defense has (second half Colorado), I still think they could win out. But I could also see them losing two more. If they can lose to Tulsa and Iowa State, they could lose to anyone left on the schedule. Think it could just be a series of shootouts to the finish.

Tyler: I think 2-2 is the floor even if the defense plays like that.

If not for the special teams issues I think the Cowboys would have won by 10 at Iowa State. But if I had to make an actual prediction then I would say this team goes 3-1 even if we see the defense start to bottom out from here which is possible due to mounting injuries.

That’s how much I believe in this offense (which finally played well in the red zone at Ames btw).

Kyle: To that point, the Wildcats have been much worse at running the ball since Avery Johnson went down. But Blake Barnett appears to have some wheels plus he’s a (yikes) backup QB. Considering all that, how do we feel about a beat up, under-performing OSU defense trying to slow down Kansas State’s run game on the road?

Marshall: It feels odd saying this given we’re just a few short years away from that 2024 defense that was awful against the run, but I’m more worried about the passing attack. Jaylen Raynor was pulled the week before OSU played the Cyclones, and he had a career day.

With all that said, the Cowboys have done a nice job of bouncing back, so I feel like this could be a gritty performance where they could get it done.

Tyler: I think OSU finally turning things over to LaDainian Fields and Mo Horn in the last two weeks gives me more faith in the secondary and is a big reason Fields has four picks in three games. I also think safety Quinton Hammonds looked a bit lousy last week by his standards, but I assume he will be even healthier this week.

So I’m going to assume Kansas State struggles to pass more than Iowa State did. I’m probably more worried the Wildcats suddenly get going on the ground for the first time without Avery Johnson, but overall I’m feeling rather confident K-State will look slightly better running than it has in recent weeks, but it probably won’t be a career-making day for anyone.

Kyle: Maybe I’ve seen too many OSU defenses getting gashed by a dual-threat K-State QB. At least Collin Klein is stuck on the sidelines.

Tyler: To that point, if Avery Johnson were playing in this one, I’d predict a similar shootout this week.

Marshall: What is a benchmark or two that you feel good about OSU’s chances this weekend should they reach?

For example, I think if OSU holds K-State under 275 passing yards, I think the Cowboys win. I just sort of think you need almost a baseline of 300 passing yards to be able to keep up with the Cowboys.

Similarly, I think if OSU wins the turnover battle (even if it’s just 1-0) the Cowboys win because it’d be tough to keep up with OSU while turning the ball over.

Kyle: I’ll say that if the Cowboys can stop the Wildcats on over half of their third-down attempts (plus fourth-down attempts), they win. They’ve converting just under 53% on the year and have been only below 30% once.

That means K-State can’t play keep away from Drew Mestemaker as much. Give him the ball, he’s going to score.

Tyler: At this point I’m almost baking a Fields’ interception into my prediction.

I think Oklahoma State does win this game (likely on cruise control) if it wins the turnover battle.

I also think Oklahoma State wins if it scores touchdowns on at least 67% of its red zone trips. I think the red zone slowing down the offense is my only real concern for that side of the ball. For context, OSU was 100% last week after averaging 50% before that.

To Kyle’s point, Oklahoma State’s defense has yet to keep a P4 opponent under 52% on the road this season.

Tyler: Crossover season just started, so I’m curious which team do we feel will improve the most from last season and because that’s super unfair to wrestling is there one game/match this month we are most excited to watch?

Kyle: I think I’m going to go with MBB just because of all the talent that Steve Lutz has brought in and the fact that I feel like they’ve performed a little under what they could in the last couple of seasons — especially with key injuries down the stretch last year.

To that point, I’ll point to the Cowboys’ upcoming matchup with a Texas A&M squad that might be pretty good next Thursday. Just to see how the Pokes stack up.

Marshall: It’s interesting because the basketball teams should both take steps forward in their own ways. This is the most-hyped Cowgirl roster I can personally remember. At this point, I think I’d be surprised if they’re not playing in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

This also appears to be Steve Lutz’s best roster to date. The Cowboys were up and down in their exhibition schedule, but I don’t know how much to draw from that. If they can consistently play like they did in the first half Monday night, they’ll be fine.

As for my most anticipated event of November, I choose OSU wrestling’s dual with Nebraska. David Taylor’s squad is good like always, but the Cornhuskers did some work in the transfer portal this offseason. Could see Landon Robideau vs. Antrell Taylor (NCAA finals rematch) Troy Spratley vs. Vincent Robinson (2025 NCAA finals rematch), Sergio Vega vs. Anthony Echemendia and more.

Tyler: I’m going with the Cowgirls as my team that will improve the most.

Men’s hoops has the most room for growth so it could be them, but since I haven’t seen anything mind-blowing yet I’ll just bet on the “Super Team” Cowgirl roster coming together to achieve a Sweet 16 type run.

Including TV I think the Cowgirls neutral site game vs Washington is probably more interesting to me than the men’s game against Texas A&M next Thursday, mostly because it will probably tell us more about the potential of that team than the game against the Aggies.

But, sports in person are always better, and I agree the wrestling dual vs. Nebraska on Nov. 13 feels like the biggest event in GIA this month by a long shot.