What Has to Happen for Oklahoma State to Make Big 12 Title Game After Houston’s Loss at Colorado

Support PFB with a PFB+ membership — $8 a month or $50 for a year.

STILLWATER — Flights were grounded nationwide for a huge stretch on Friday, but it’s possible a magic sleigh did a test flight over this part of the country anyways.

Colorado, a team that spent most of the season floundering, beat No. 14 Houston to earn the program’s first win over an AP Top 15 team since 2007 and, in the process, gave the Cowboys the keys to the Big 12 race.

Oklahoma State still has to do its part, but if the Cowboys can beat CFP No. 12 Texas Tech on Saturday night, they will nearly control their own destiny to make it to Arlington for the final Big 12 Championship Game.

Of course, winning out is a must, so Oklahoma State must follow up this hypothetical win over the Red Raiders by beating Arizona State (5-4, 3-3 Big 12) and Kansas (3-6, 1-5 Big 12), or this is all a moot point.

That leaves undefeated Utah, in the driver’s seat with Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona and Baylor left in contention with the Cowboys. BYU and Baylor face off at 6 p.m. in what should be an elimination game. Utah seems like a slam dunk to make the conference title game, but must currently win two more games to secure it. Winning Saturday’s 9:30 p.m. kick at Arizona would just about seal the top spot up in the Big 12 and send the Wildcats tumbling out of the competition in the process.

Anyways, should OSU wind up in a tiebreaker with only one team, here is what has to happen for the Cowboys to make it to Arlington:

Utah: Nothing, in this scenario, both teams are presumably left on top of the conference, barring absolute madness.

Texas Tech: Nothing, OSU will own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

BYU: OSU needs UCF (3-3) to stay ahead of Iowa State (2-4) in the standings. Those teams play in Orlando on Nov. 20. A tie gets more complicated.

Arizona: OSU needs Texas Tech (5-2) to win one more game or Iowa State needs to lose one more game. If neither happens, then they tie, and it gets complicated.

Baylor: OSU needs Kansas (1-5) to win out while Houston (4-3) loses out. Obviously that is unlikely, but it also feels like a stretch for the Bears to beat BYU, Texas Tech and Houston to wrap up the season with only two conference losses.

It still feels incredibly likely that three teams finish with two conference losses. There are several different possible combinations remaining, but the two most common scenarios include Texas Tech and BYU (and possibly Arizona) or just Arizona and BYU.

If Oklahoma State is tied with Arizona and BYU, then the Cowboys lose the tiebreaker first because all three played Iowa State and only the Cowboys lost.

If OSU is tied with Texas Tech and one or both of those other teams, then the tiebreaker goes a level deeper.

It will come down to which team played the toughest schedule in the conference according to total conference wins by all conference opponents.

Here’s how things look currently:

Oklahoma State opponents: 23 wins

Texas Tech, Arizona and BYU: 27 wins

So that doesn’t look great, but there’s still enough time left for things to shift in favor of the Cowboys here, and OSU has by far the most winnable remaining schedule should it beat the Red Raiders. So all the other teams have a much tougher path to make it to this point.

If you want to scoreboard watch on Saturday, here is who OSU fans should be rooting for:

Cincinnati at home over Iowa State, 11 a.m. (moderate importance)

Kansas State on the road over TCU, 1 p.m. (moderate importance)

Kansas on the road over WVU, 2:30 p.m. (moderate importance)

UCF at home over Arizona State, 4:30 p.m. (major importance)

Baylor at BYU, 6 p.m. (this one is a head scratcher, probably root for Baylor and just bank on the Bears dropping one of their final two games)

Utah on the road over Arizona, 9:30 p.m. (critical importance)