A Look at Oklahoma State’s Playoff Chances According to ESPN’s FPI

The Cowboys have a chance at the playoff, at least according to ESPN analytics.

ESPN on Thursday released 30 teams that its Football Power Index gave at least a 10% chance to make the first 12-team College Football Playoff this upcoming season and Oklahoma State (barely) made the cut. 

OSU has a 12.6% chance at earning a berth into the CFP, according to ESPN’s FPI. The chance of the Pokes making a run and winning it all is 0.4%. But, hey, that’s still a chance.

ESPN’s FPI analytics are used to predict teams’ chances at not only making the CFP, but also the likelihood of a team winning its conference championship and to predict a team’s final overall record. According to ESPN, FPI is a power rating system that compares a program’s strengths compared to the average FBS team while rating offense, defense and special teams to represent points per game. Theoretically, someone can use this rating to predict head-to-head matchups, thus also predicting overall records and championship chances based on schedules and other factors.

The playoff percentages were based on these metrics and the 30 teams with at least a 10% chance were ranked by percentage, with OSU having the 28th-best chance of anyone in the country to reach the CFP. Six teams from the new Big 12 were included on the list, including OSU, Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Utah. In an unprecedented time of college football, Kansas, according to the FPI, has the best chance of any Big 12 team to reach the CFP with a 24% chance — the 15th-highest percentage. K-State and Arizona also have better chances than OSU, according to the list.

The FPI is not only used to predict playoff chances, though. ESPN initially released its FPI numbers for 2024 in June. According to the analytics, the Cowboys are ranked 26th with a 7.6 RPI. OSU was the fourth-highest Big 12 team behind KU, K-State and Arizona again. Preseason Big 12 favorite Utah was actually fifth among conference members, one spot behind OSU at No. 27 with a 7.5 RPI.

Using those same analytics, the Cowboys are projected to finish the season between 8-4 or 7-5. Of the three conference teams ranked above OSU in the FPI, though, only K-State is on OSU’s schedule. South Dakota State is not on the list as an FCS school, but of the teams on OSU’s schedule, Tulsa is ranked the lowest at No. 101 of 134 schools.

At the end of the season, though, computers and analytics do not decide the outcomes of the 2024 season. Heck, humans even decide which 12 teams get into the CFP.