Blind Resumes: How Oklahoma State Stacks Up Against NCAA Tournament Teams

I wrote about the RPI a bit on Monday morning and how it, uh, might not be the best formula to use to determine NCAA Tournament teams. But because it’s what the selection committee is clearly using, let’s use it to show why Oklahoma State should be dancing come Sunday.

The NCAA Tournament selection committee is apparently very big on quadrants. Collect Quadrant 1-2 wins and avoid Quadrant 4 losses. Those are the rules. So using a few of the tools at our disposal, let’s look at some of Joe Lunardi’s bubble teams and see how OSU currently stacks up.

Again, here are the quadrants.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

And here are eight teams. One is Oklahoma State. The other seven are all currently NCAA Tournament teams, according to Lunardi. See if you can spot the resume that doesn’t belong (OSU’s, apparently).

Team 1

Quadrant 1-2 record: 9-10
Quadrant 3-4 record: 12-0
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 62
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: N/A

Team 2

Quadrant 1-2 record: 7-13
Quadrant 3-4 record: 10-0
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 40
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: N/A

Team 3

Quadrant 1-2 record: 9-13
Quadrant 3-4 record: 9-0
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 43
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: N/A

Team 4

Quadrant 1-2 record: 8-8
Quadrant 3-4 record: 12-2
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 44
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: 115

Team 5

Quadrant 1-2 record: 7-10
Quadrant 3-4 record: 13-0
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 44
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: N/A

Team 6

Quadrant 1-2 record: 8-9
Quadrant 3-4 record: 11-3
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 45
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: 198

Team 7

Quadrant 1-2 record: 8-13
Quadrant 3-4 record: 10-0
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 47
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: N/A

Team 8

Quadrant 1-2 record: 7-4
Quadrant 3-4 record: 17-2
Average RPI of Quad 1-2 wins: 55
Average RPI of Quad 3-4 losses: 159

Again seven of those teams are NCAA Tournament teams according Lunardi (I should also note that I took numbers based on RPI ratings on Monday, March 5 — they change daily). Oklahoma State is also in there somewhere, and Lunardi has them out.

My argument here is a simple one. Wins against Quadrant 1-2 teams are not created equally, but wins and losses against Quadrant 3-4 teams are created equally.

Is there a material difference between RPI No. 5 Kansas and RPI No. 96 Montana? Uh, yes. But is there a material difference between RPI No. 162 Tulane and RPI No. 337 Maine? I guess so, but it’s not as wild as the first difference. If you beat Tulane, you shouldn’t get any more of a boost than if you beat Maine. But you get a boost just by playing Tulane in that scenario because it pumps up your RPI. Also of note here: Winning at Iowa State and beating West Virginia at home are both Quadrant 2 wins. Wowza.

Oklahoma State has wins over seven RPI top 50 teams, and two of those were against top five Kansas. That has to mean something! That’s why I averaged the Quadrant 1-2 wins and Quadrant 3-4 losses.

An example: Team 8 has wins over RPI No. 16 Rhode Island, RPI No. 32 Buffalo and RPI No. 40 Syracuse. Those are all of their Quadrant 1 wins. Oklahoma State has wins over RPI No. 5 Kansas (twice), RPI No. 22 Texas Tech, RPI No. 31 WVU and RPI No. 44 Florida State. Very simply, even though they have more overall losses, OSU’s top wins have been better than most of these other teams.

Reader Grant M. said it this way: “Your comparison of OU and OSU’s non-con schedule is exactly what has been bothering me every time an analyst says OSU have a ‘weak’ non-con schedule. Realistically, who cares if Charlotte, Houston Baptist, and Pepperdine have 5 wins or 10? At some point bad teams are bad teams (like you stated). Teams should be judge based on how many good teams they play.  I define ‘good’ as Power 5 or really good mid-major.”

One thing that nobody is talking about: OU played one fewer game than Oklahoma State. What if they’d scheduled the RPI No. 300 team? Then their RPI falls. So by not playing, they actually get an advantage. Bonkers!

Anyway, here are the eight teams.

Team 1: Kansas State
Team 2: Baylor
Team 3: Oklahoma State
Team 4: UCLA
Team 5: Creighton
Team 6: Providence
Team 7: Texas
Team 8: St. Bonaventure

The St. Bonaventure thing is killing me. Their RPI is 21. OSU’s is 88. St. Bonaventure’s fourth-best win is against Northeastern. Not Northwestern. Northeastern. I realize this is not a new argument — middling Power 5 teams are better than good mid-major teams — but man.

Texas and Oklahoma State are essentially the same team. They played to a regular season tie (with dueling 65-64 scores). Texas’ Quad 1 record is 5-10. OSU’s Quad 1 record is 5-10. Texas’ Quad 2 record is 3-3. OSU’s is 4-3. OSU actually has a better average RPI number in their Quad 1-2 wins, but because Texas scheduled powerhouses Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech, their RPI is No. 48. OSU scheduled ORU and Pepperdine (which are much worse teams than Tennessee St. and La. Tech ?) so they’re out.

For now.