Chuba Hubbard is a Breakout Candidate, But Here’s One Reason for Skepticism

Entering the 2018 season, many expected that with a new quarterback and questions about who would step up as WR1, OSU would ride seasoned veteran running back Justice Hill like a workhorse. After all, Hill ended his 2017 campaign looking like a potential Heisman candidate, rushing for over 120 yards in three of his last five games and amassing 130 (!!) total touches during that stint.

That was the expectation. Reality was much different. In the season-opener, he logged 10 carries for 122 yards rushing, one reception for 22 yards receiving, and one total TD. Efficient. In the next two nonconference games, he averaged 12 carries for 77.5 yards rushing per game, 0.5 receptions, 5.5 yards receiving and 1.5 touchdowns per contest. It’s nonconference play, I remember saying to myself. Just wait until they unleash him on the big dogs in the Big 12.

As usual, I was wrong. Over the next seven league games — before his season ended after an injury suffered against OU — Hill was essentially put on a load management plan a la Kawhi Leonard. As opposed to Hill’s sophomore season where he’d averaged a whopping 25.4 touches per game in conference play, Hill in 2018 was downgraded to only 19.3 touches per game in league play — a number that is misleading about his usage when you consider it was buoyed by big-usage games against Texas (26 touches), Kansas (32 touches!) and Iowa State (25 touches).

The motivation for such a reel-back was clear: Hill was an NFL prospect, and at a position like running back where tread on the tires pre-professional career matters, OSU opted to use him sparingly while Chuba Hubbard got major reps and other backups could split time.

That’s why despite reason for optimism about Chuba Hubbard — optimism like totally-not-insane suggestions that he may, in fact, be better than his predecessor — we may want to pump the brakes on Chuba Hubbard.

Look, I think Hubbard is a bonafide star. I think he’s the best running back in the Big 12. I think he could run for 1,500 yards this season.

I also think there’s a chance he may not get the opportunity to do so.

Hubbard was so good down the stretch of 2018 providing relief for Hill and subsequently supplanting him during injury that he firmly planted himself on the NFL radar. Another breakout season, and poof, he could vanish into the fourth round with ease. Or third. Or second ….

He really was that good. Now here’s the kicker, though, and it’s an important one: Hill had to sign off on his decreased workload. In fact, I’ve been told that the idea of such a thing may have been floated by Hill himself to OSU’s staff. Because let’s think about this. Would OSU’s coaches willingly ride a first-year starting QB even through some, shall we say, bumpy times last season if they could have just stuck the ball in Hill’s gut and told him to go average 5.9 yards per carry? Would they intentionally decrease his stellar and efficient workload to try and make sure Taylor Cornelius could get all his reps? Cornelius was a fifth-year senior, so that strategy seems like it’d only be useful if he was 18 and not 28.

Maybe the answer is yes, but I’m not totally buying it. The whole idea of making a QB more comfortable centers on decreasing his workload, which you do by giving it to your best running back (Justice) or by relying on your defense to win games (lol).

So maybe Hubbard could emerge a star in 2019. I’m betting (not monetarily, but mentally) on it. But if Hubbard comes to the same realization that Hill did a year ago — that perhaps his best path to becoming an NFL player and maximizing the longevity of that career centers on a load management-like program — then perhaps we should hold off before penciling him in as the next All-American tailback to come through Stillwater. Or perhaps more optimistically, Hubbard, like Kawhi, will be so good that time spent on the field even on a load management plan is good enough to bring a championship.