How Much Better (and Consistent) Can the Oklahoma State Offense Become?

Oklahoma State is on what I would call the third offensive iteration of the Mike Gundy era. If you want to break them out, it probably goes P.H. (pre-Holgorsen), the Holgorsen-Monken era and now the Mike Yurcich era. They have all been distinctive and there have obviously been minor changes within each era, but those are the broad categories we’re dealing with.

And Oklahoma State is coming off an all-time season (and stretch) in which it finished No. 2 in the country in points per drive, slightly ahead of the 2011 team (#factsonly!) However, the previous four years of the Yurcich era were more up and down than you might think. Let’s take a look at both phases of time.

2017 Points Per Drive

This is for Power 5 teams against FBS teams and excludes end-of-half clock kills and garbage time points.

1. Oklahoma — 3.77
2. Oklahoma State — 3.47
3. Ohio State — 3.31
4. Washington — 3.12
5. Penn State — 3.06

The 2011 number was 3.42. OSU was statistically more efficient in 2017 than it was in 2011. So if we’re answering the question “how much better can Oklahoma State’s offense be?” and looking only at last year, the answer is “not much.” That is more or less the apex of how good a college offense, and specifically an Oklahoma State offense, can be. There is a case to be made that it was the best, most efficient offense in the history of Oklahoma State football. I will not be making that case, but a person could if he or she wanted to, and it would not be considered crazy.

In the last five years, there have been 640 offensive seasons in FBS football. Of Power 5 teams, only 2013 FSU (maybe the best offense ever), 2014 Oregon, 2017 OU, 2015 Stanford, 2013 Ohio State and 2016 OU were more efficient than 2017 Oklahoma State. So last year was as good as offense gets in the modern era unless OSU follows its senior-laden team with an historically great offense that somehow usurps the previous one (the chances of this are, uh, not great).

However, if you look at the last five years the Pokes have probably not been as good as most people might think. There is a lot of room for improvement. OSU ranks No. 12 in terms of average points per drive ranking (i.e. offensive efficiency) of Power 5 teams in the last five seasons. Here are the top 12 teams.

2013-2017 PPD (Yurcich Era)

1. Ohio State — No. 12 (avg. ranking nationally in offensive PPD)
2. OU — No. 16
3. Oregon — No. 18
4. Alabama — No. 23
5. Auburn — No. 27
6. Notre Dame — No. 29
7. Baylor — No. 31
8. USC — No. 31
9. Kansas State — No. 31
10. Stanford — No. 32
11. Texas Tech — No. 33
12. Oklahoma State — No. 34

That 87th place finish in 2014 really sticks out like Marcus Smart’s thumb. And it also gets at the idea that OSU could be more consistent over longer periods of time than they have been. For example, Kansas State should not, over any five-year period, be ranked ahead of you in offensive efficiency. It’s just not a thing that should happen.

However, the way we think about the success of the Oklahoma State offense gets at the dichotomy of how we want to think about success for Oklahoma State in general. I always go back to the “would you rather go 14-0 for one season and 7-6 the other four or 10-3 for all five seasons?” question.

In this particular situation the question is sort of inverted. It’s more, “would you rather consistently have the No. 31 offense in the country over five years or the No. 10 offense for four years and the No. 90 offense for the other year?” Everyone would choose the latter, even though that one year is tough to sit through. And that is effectively the difference between Kansas State and Oklahoma State. But the best situation, and the one OSU is close to solving, is how to have the No. 10 offense in the country for four years and the No. 40 offense (instead of the No. 90 offense) in their “down year.”

The other thing that should be mentioned is that, despite having the No. 12 Power 5 offense over the past five years based on average national ranking, OSU is No. 10 among Power 5 teams in winning percentage. It’s interesting to me that they rank higher in wins than they do in the particular area of football they are best at executing.

The overall rub here is obviously with QB1. This upcoming season is going to be interesting. Over the last three years (the Rudolph era) OSU has been No. 2 of all Power 5 teams in terms of offensive efficiency ranking. Their average ranking is No. 14 (OU’s is No. 4!). But the last time OSU came into a season without an established signal caller, they finished 87th in the country in offensive efficiency. I think everyone thinks Yurcich has evolved and grown as a coordinator and play-caller. But as the numbers above show, OSU still has work to do to truly be considered an offensive powerhouse on a national level every single year.

Take OU and Alabama as your examples. In their worst years of the last five they were No. 43 and No. 49 in offensive efficiency respectively. If you’re OSU, you know your ceiling under Yurcich, and it is awesome — No. 10 out of 640 offensive seasons in the last five years — but you also know your floor. And great programs limit their floors and figure out how to win 10 games regardless. I don’t know if Oklahoma State has the horses or infrastructure to do that yet, but we might find out very soon.