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Kansas State Preview: Can OSU String Together Back-To-Back Big 12 Wins?

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The Cowboys (11-4, 1-2) look to follow up their overtime win over Iowa State with a road win at Kansas State, also 11-4 (1-2). If you’re not an absolute trooper and don’t plan to make the long road trip up to the Little Apple, here’s how to enjoy the game.

How To Watch/Listen

When/Where: Wednesday, January 10 at 7 p.m., Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, Kansas
TV/crew: ESPNews (Lowell Galindo, Lance Blanks)
Webcast: ESPNews
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
Satellite Radio: Sirius 135, XM 199 (K-State radio call)

The Wildcats and Cowboys have both learned early that wins don’t come easy in the Big 12 this year (or any year). Kansas State is coming off of back-to-back losses to then-No. 6 West Virginia and No. 18 Texas Tech, with the Cowboys also 1-2 with losses to then-Nos. 7 West Virginia and Oklahoma.

It’s not going to get any easier as conference play drags on, so this is a game both teams desperately need to win. Let’s take a look at each team, again through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense
Offense Effective FG% / Rank TO% / Rank Off. Reb% / Rank FT Rate / Rank
Oklahoma State 51.6 / 138 18.2 / 121 32.6 / 75 31.6 / 229
Kansas State 55.3 / 37 16.9 / 52 30.8 / 125 34.5 / 164

Kansas State isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut but — neither is OSU if you haven’t noticed. The Wildcats are 37th in effective field goal percentage thanks largely to junior forward Dean Wade who is 40th nationally at 65.7 percent. He’s the ‘Cats’ second-leading scorer at 14.9 points per game.

Wade and leading scorer Barry Brown (15.5 per game) will have to shoulder an even bigger load as they will be without starting point guard Kamau Stokes, who was injured against Texas Tech.

Defense
Defense Effective FG% / Rank TO% / Rank Off. Reb% / Rank FT Rate / Rank
Oklahoma State 47.4 / 56 22.3 / 32 29.2 / 189 38.8 / 266
Kansas State 47.8 / 72 22.8 / 24 31.4 / 265 40.5 / 288

On defense, the Wildcats are giving up a lot of offensive boards to opposing teams and a lot of free throws, but they do have the third-ranked scoring defense in the Big 12 so far, giving up just 64.9 points per game.

Like OSU, Kansas State turns teams over at a decent clip but isn’t careless with the ball, committing the 16th-fewest TOs in the nation so far this year. The Wildcats have only lost the turnover battle in four games this season. A lot of that was due to Kamau Stokes’ 2.4-to-1 turnover-to-assist ratio. Which leads us to our next point.

Keep an eye on: PG for K-State

The Wildcats will be without starting point guard Kamau Stokes who suffered a foot injury during the first half in the loss to Texas Tech, and is out indefinitely. Attempting to replace Stokes’ 13.4 points and 4.6 assists should be Cartier Diarra.

The redshirt freshman scored 11 points and dished out two assists in a career-high 30 minutes after Stokes’s injury. Diarra is shooting 42.3 percent from the 3-point line.

Keys for OSU

Win the battle of the boards. The Wildcats rank dead last in the Big 12 in rebounding margin and are ranked 324th in the nation in total rebounds. Mitchell Solomon and Co. should be able to clean up in the paint.

The Cowboys have had trouble generating offense at times this year and even a team like Iowa State was able to hold them scoreless for big stretches. OSU was fortunate to get the win after giving up a 14-point lead with a 17-0 run to the Cyclones. That’s not a game anyone can afford to play. Especially this Oklahoma State team, and especially on the road.

Prediction

KenPom game the Cowboys a 33-percent chance to steal one in Manhattan, but that was before Stokes’ injury. I think OSU’s momentum coming in coupled with K-State’s loss of Stokes is enough to get the Pokes a win.

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