Kansas State Preview

Photo Attribution: Icon SMI

Teams: #3 Oklahoma State 8-0 (5-0) vs. #14 Kansas State 7-1 (4-1)
Time: 7:00 PM CST
TV: ABC/ESPN2 – Coverage map
On the call: Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters

Kickoff: Win this game and you have your first #2 BCS ranking in school history and all of a sudden find yourself in the driver’s passenger’s seat to play [whoever you think is going to win Bamageddon] in New Orleans in two months.

Lose it, and all of Thayer Evans’ dreams will come true.

It’s really weird to wake up on the morning of a game against a top 15 team and not really have any doubt who’s going to win the game. Could OSU lose? Sure, but 99 out of 100 times they’re going to roll over K-State and give Bill Snyder’s Big 12 title hopes the latter part of that 1-2 Oklahoma knockout punch.

For entertainment purposes:
Spread: Cowboys -21
Over/Under: 70

This opened at OSU -21.5 and hasn’t moved much off of that. I thought it was high when it opened and I still do. This feels like the week Vegas finally said, “screw it, OSU could hang 45 on the Colts, we’re just throwing crazy double digit numbers out there, do with them what you want.” I mean think about it, OSU is favored by 3 touchdowns over the number fourteen team in the country and nobody who gambles thinks that’s too high. Have I died and been transported to another lifetime?

Also, OSU games have gone under or pushed the over/under four of the last five weeks. I always take the over, but there’s a reason I’m doing it hypothetically.

A few stats you should know:

• Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 with 29 forced turnovers. Kansas State is second with 17. Quite the gap.
• OSU has had a double-digit winning streak just once in its history. A win today would make it twice.
• OSU has rushed for 25 TDs this season after running for 26 all of last season (h/t okstate.com).
• OSU won’t play another home game for a month after this.

What I’m excited about: I think Weeden is going to have a huge day. By most metrics we have (total passing yards, S&P) Kansas State does not have a good pass defense, although they do have 12 INT. Landry had a massive day though (75% 505 yards 5 TD) and I expect nothing less from Weeden.

Unless, you know, OSU is resting its starters by the 4th per the usual…

OSU will win if: They get up by 2 TD. This K-State team isn’t built for shootouts. They beat Eastern Kentucky 10-7 for heaven’s sake. They thrive on controlling the ball, stopping the run, forcing turnovers, and not making mistakes (2nd in the Big 12 in penalty yards against/game). All things OSU is pretty good at counteracting.

How worried I am (out of 10):

Uniform prediction:

Gun to my head: OSU 58-20 – No fallout with OSU playing in the shadow of Bama/LSU with #2 on the line for next week. The defense does its thing, Weeden goes big, and OSU goes on the road for a pair to get to Bedlam 11-0. Cowboy up.

Give me your predictions below!