Kansas State Is a Three-Point Favorite Over OSU, And Here Is Why

There was a ripple of surprise on Sunday as Kansas State opened up as a three-point (or 2.5-point) favorite over Oklahoma State depending on where you get your gambling information. KSU was coming off a narrow 31-26 win over Iowa State (!) and OSU had just trounced West Virginia.

But Vegas is smart, and Vegas knows that this OSU team wins games by creating turnovers. Vegas also knows that Kansas State is easily the best team in the Big 12 at protecting the football and currently No. 8 in the country at 0.9 turnovers per game. That doesn’t bode well for the Cowboys.

There are other reasons Kansas State is favored, too. Most notably that the game is in Manhattan and the home team is 10-2 in this series since 1998 including the last five contests. OSU has only won one time in Manhattan since 1988 (that was in 2014). It is 1-8 in that span. Yikes!

There’s more though. Advanced stats show that Kansas State, despite its 5-3 record, is actually better than Oklahoma State on defense.

Big 12 defenses (S&P+)
19) BU
35) WVU
47) TCU
53) KSU
61) OU
66) OSU
82) UT
97) KU
107) ISU
118) TT

— Oklahoma State Stats (@OSUStats) October 30, 2016

So don’t just look at the most recent game when evaluating this line. Just because OSU is ranked and KSU is not does not mean it will be an upset if the Wildcats win on Saturday. Just like it should not have been considered an upset for OSU to beat West Virginia last Saturday.

This is going to be a massively difficult game for OSU on Saturday in Manhattan. Vegas knows it. We know it. Mike Gundy knows it. Everybody knows it. Win this one, though, and you shorten that path to Norman for a de facto Big 12 title game.

Whooo boy, I love November.