Match-by-Match Predictions for Oklahoma State’s Dual against Iowa

On paper, the Cowboys’ dual against Iowa looks like the match count will be split 5-5, meaning this thing could come down to bonus points.

No. 2 Oklahoma State and No. 3 Iowa wrestle at 7:30 p.m. Sunday in Iowa City. Here is how I predict each match will go.

125: No. 4 Troy Spratley vs. No. 16 Joey Cruz

This is a potential bonus spot for the Cowboys, and I think Troy Spratley gets it done with a technical fall win against Joey Cruz.

Assuming the dual starts at 125, Carver is going to be electric for this match, and who better to harness that energy than a guy whose nickname is Sparkplug?

These two met at the Lindenwood Open last season, where Spratley won with a 19-2 technical fall. On top of that, I just feel Spratley has been battle-tested this season, having wrestled everyone else in the current top five of Intermat’s rankings. Cruz hasn’t wrestled anyone in the top five.

Team score: 5-0, OSU

133: No. 21 Reece Witcraft vs. No. 2 Drake Ayala

David Taylor hasn’t officially named Witcraft the starter, but that’s the way things are trending, with Witcraft having wrestled in OSU’s past three duals. Drake Ayala is a tough out for no matter who OSU sends out there, though.

Ayala is 14-1 this season with eight of his wins coming with bonus points. With that being said, he hasn’t earned bonus in his past two matches (against No. 16 Jacob Van Dee and No. 19 Tyler Wells). Witcraft was able to keep his loss to No. 4 Evan Frost to a regular decision, but No. 8 Nasir Bailey majored Witcraft 13-0 in his most recent match.

With Witcraft’s high-octane style, all of his matches have the potential to have big scores one way or the other. I’ve gone back and forth even writing this sentence, but I think I’m leaning Ayala via major decision.

Team score: 5-4, OSU

141: No. 5 Tagen Jamison vs. Cullan Schriever

Cullan Schriever is 5-8 this season, but four of those losses have come against guys currently in the top 10 at the weight. Jamison enters at 16-3 and as the heavy favorite. It feels like a matter of whether or not Jamison can put up bonus.

Jamison’s last bonus-point win was Jan. 19 against West Virginia’s Jordan Titus. Since, he has lost two matches in sudden victory to wrestlers ranked in the top 11, and he has beaten Little Rock’s Brennan Van Hoecke 8-2.

Schriever has only given up bonus points three times in 61 career matches, so I think he fends Jamison off and keeps it to a regular decision.

Team score: 8-4, OSU

149: No. 18 Carter Young vs. No. 3 Kyle Parco

This one feels somewhat like an inverse of the previous match. This time it’s the Hawkeye who is the heavy favorite.

Young is 4-9 against ranked competition this season and enters this weekend having lost three of four. He hasn’t given up bonus much, though. The only time that’s happened this season was when No. 1 Caleb Henson pinned him in late December. Those two wrestled at Cliff Keen, though, where Young lost a 6-3 decision.

I think Parco wins it, but Young keeps it at a decision.

Team score: 8-7, OSU

157: No. 14 Caleb Fish vs. No. 3 Jacori Teemer

Teemer has wrestled just six matches this season, missing time because of a hamstring injury.

Like with Witcraft, Fish’s style opens the possibility for a lot of points to be scored, but I’ll take Teemer via decision, which gives Iowa its first lead of the dual.

Team score: 10-8, Iowa

165: No. 6 Cameron Amine vs. No. 2 Michael Caliendo

These two wrestled twice at the Big Ten Tournament last season when Amine was at Michigan. Caliendo won the first meeting 5-2 and the second 4-1 in sudden-victory.

Call me a homer, and maybe this is because of the fact that Amine met with the media this week and I liked how he spoke, but I think Amine gets it done and wins a tight one.

It’s a bit of a clash of styles in that Caliendo has put up bonus points 13 times this season, and Amine often wrestles tighter matches. I think that gives him the edge in this bout.

Team score: 11-10, OSU

174: No. 3 Dean Hamiti Jr. vs. No. 11 Patrick Kennedy or Nelson Brands

Hamiti and Kennedy have wrestled twice, but it was two years ago and at 165 pounds. Hamiti won both of those matches via decisions. Brands returned to Iowa’s lineup this past weekend — his first match since Dec. 6 after battling through injury.

I have no clue who the Hawkeyes will send out, but I think Hamiti will beat either. I’m going to say it’s a decision, but with how awesome Hamiti has been this year, it wouldn’t surprise me if he won via bonus.

Team score: 14-10, OSU

184: No. 3 Dustin Plott vs. No. 8 Gabe Arnold (or Angelo Ferrari)

This is another spot where Iowa could throw a bit of a curveball. Arnold was on Iowa’s projected lineup, but the Hawkeyes have been using Angelo Ferrari, AJ’s younger brother, in big matches this year while maintaining his redshirt.

Given how I’ve predicted this to go at this point, I think Iowa will use Ferrari here in hopes of getting a big swing in momentum. Ferrari wrestled four-time NCAA champ Carter Starocci at the end of January. Starocci won, but it was a 3-1 decision. I think Plott gets the win here, but Ferrari keeps it to a decision.

Team score: 17-10, OSU

197: No. 6 Luke Surber vs. No. 1 Stephen Buchanan

This has the potential to be the match of the night in my eyes. Surber has wrestled his tail off this year, as he comes up against top-ranked Buchanan.

The two wrestled at the Big 12 tournament last season, where Buchanan (then at OU) picked up a 6-2 win. Both guys were battling through injury at that point in the year, though, and both look at lot better this season.

I’ll predict Buchanan via decision. But Surber loves a wild scramble, and I think there’s an in here for Surber to pull off an upset.

Team score: 17-13, OSU

HWT: No. 3 Wyatt Hendrickson vs. No. 11 Ben Kueter

If it goes how I predicted, this sure puts Kueter, a redshirt freshman, in a tough spot needing bonus points.

I don’t think that’s going to happen. Only twice this season has a Hendrickson match gone all seven minutes, as he’s teched or pinned everyone but No. 4 Isaac Trumble and No. 5 Cohlton Schultz. I’ll say Kueter survives the full seven, but Hendrickson wins via major decision.

Team score: 21-13, OSU