Oklahoma State Can’t Make the 2018 NCAA Tournament, Right?

After getting thumped by 20 against TCU on Saturday in their 14th Big 12 game of the season, Oklahoma State’s 2018 NCAA Tournament hopes felt dead. And for all intents and purposes, they are dead. The Cowboys are now 5-9 in conference play and 15-12 overall with two of their four remaining games coming against the two best teams in the league.

There is a sliver of hope, I suppose, that if OSU can win out against Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State and Kansas to get to 9-9, or even if they go 3-1 in those games, that could get them in. But raise your hand if you think this OSU team is going 3-1 against those four teams over the next two weeks.

I do think this team is trending for the NIT — and I’m salivating at a possible Illinois-Oklahoma State matchup, as Mark Cooper first threw out there — but because this is a weekly exercise, let’s try and get OSU to eight conference wins based on the remaining schedule.

All data, rankings and predictions are from KenPom.com where OSU is the No. 75 team in the country as of Monday. The KenPom prediction is what percentage chance he gives OSU of winning each game.

Not encouraging! Although there are plenty of opportunities for resume-building victories. KenPom predicts that OSU will finish 6-12 in the Big 12. That’s probably what I would bet on at the moment, too. Apropos of nothing: OSU is 4 points from being 2-12 in the Big 12 (2 against Texas, 1 against ISU and OU) and 14 points from being 0-14. Wowza.

“Need to win” games

• All of them

Win all four and you’re definitely in with the nonconference slate you’ve played. That’s even with a loss in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.

One concern that I have is OSU winning the next three, getting destroyed by Kansas to end the year at home and then getting housed in the Big 12 Tournament. Would that 8-10 OSU team get in after having lost its last two games to Kansas and another Big 12 team in the first round of the conference tournament? Maybe, but I wouldn’t sleep well on the Saturday night before Selection Sunday.

There’s a chance, by the way, that Oklahoma State could get Oklahoma in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. OSU is currently the No. 9 seed, and OU is tied for sixth with Texas and TCU. Hell, before it’s over OSU might end up with the No. 8 seed and OU could fall to 9th with the way they’re playing right now. Either way, another high-profile W against ESPN VP of programming Trae Young would be a necessity for OSU if it remains one of the bottom four teams in the league going into the postseason.