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Oklahoma State Has Been Unbelievable in Close Games in the Mason Rudolph Era

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Mason Rudolph won his 30th game as the starting QB at Oklahoma State on Saturday. A third of those have been games in which he’s trailed in the second half.

Oklahoma State has also won 14 of its last 15 games decided by fewer than 10 points, including 13 of 14 in the Rudolph era. These numbers are both astounding and confusing.

They’re astounding because no team should win that many close games. They’re confusing because it seems like no team built like Oklahoma State is built should be in that many close games.

But here we are.

It begs the question of whether OSU is overrated for playing so many tight ones against opponents we would probably deem inferior or underrated for being so good at closing. I have no answers. The answer, as it almost always is, is probably “both.”

Rudolph is 30-8 in his career as a starter. Seven of the eight losses have come by 10 or more points, and seven of the eight eight were at the hands of teams ranked in the top 16. The only one that was by fewer than 10 points and against a team outside the top 16? Central Michigan last year.

There have been big wins — OSU has won 17 games by more than 10 points under Rudolph. But a lot of them have been tight, one-possession affairs. Games decided by fewer than 10. Rudolph is 13-1* in these games.

Here are the Ws in order, from 2014 to 2017. Again, the only loss was CMU.

Year Opponent OSU Opponent Margin
2014 (18) Oklahoma 38 35 3
2014 Washington 30 22 8
2015 Texas 30 27 3
2015 Kansas State 36 34 2
2015 West Virginia 33 26 7
2015 Iowa State 35 31 4
2016 Pitt 45 38 7
2016 Iowa State 38 31 7
2016 Kansas State 43 37 6
2016 Texas Tech 45 44 1
2017 Texas Tech 41 34 7
2017 Texas 13 10 3
2017 (24) Iowa State 49 42 7

Interestingly, Oklahoma State has beaten more ranked opponents (5) by 10 or more points under Rudolph than it has beaten ranked opponents by fewer than 10 points. It has only beaten two ranked opponents by fewer than 10 points (OU in 2014 and Iowa State on Saturday).

What does it all mean? I think it means OSU takes care of business against the teams it should take care of business against and occasionally houses good squads (TCU in 2015, Colorado in 2016), but that it hasn’t been great against really good opponents. All of OSU’s losses under Rudolph have been “good losses.” That is, top 16 teams in Big Daddy games. Other than Central Michigan, of course.

Here are all the losses in the Rudolph era, from his first game to Bedlam last week.

Year Opponent OSU Opponent Difference
2014 (6) Baylor 28 49 -21
2015 (10) Baylor 35 45 -10
2015 (5) Oklahoma 23 58 -35
2015 (16) Ole Miss 20 48 -28
2016 CMU 27 30 -3
2016 (16) Baylor 24 35 -11
2016 (7) Oklahoma 20 38 -18
2017 (16) Texas Christian 31 44 -13
2017 (8) Oklahoma 52 62 -10

“We should petition for increased ticket sales and charge people more to come watch us play,” said Mike Gundy on Saturday. “We’re definitely exciting, and people get their money’s worth. And they don’t change the channel so they get all the commercial value. It’s every week for us. I said this seven weeks ago that it will be this way in the (Big 12). It’s every week in this league with the way things are built.”

It’s true that Oklahoma State is exciting, and it’s also true that the Cardiac Cowboys have lived up to their name while also winning a ton of games. They have been consistent, that’s for sure. Consistently slight winners against inferior teams and consistently big losers against superior opponents.

There are few outliers, but the outliers are outliers. TCU in 2015 specifically comes to mind. How about WVU on Homecoming last year? That team was No. 10 in the nation at the time.

Maybe that’s just who they are, and maybe that’s why all of this is so frustrating. I got an email from a buddy the other day. He noted the 2013 Baylor game and 2015 TCU.

To be honest, everything makes perfect sense if you take away those two games. OSU is a program that will beat most Big 12 teams, even the good ones, most of the time. If we’re on that day and/or get a few breaks, we’ll blow them out. If things break the other way, we’re in a close game and we usually, but not always, win it. That’s a good — a very good — program, but one that generally is not able to compete with a top-five-in-the-country team. No shame in that.

But then every so often we go and eviscerate a genuine title contender. And that gives us a case of We-Want-Bama-itis that never wears off. What’s up with this? Would we be happier if those games hadn’t happened? Would we be happier if we accepted that those two games were flukes? *Were* they flukes?

It’s a fascinating question. One I don’t have the answer to. One probably nobody has the answer to. All I know is that Oklahoma State continues to win close games against good teams, and that is meaningful. That counts for something. In a league where a lot of teams are pretty good, it means you’re just a little bit better.

Gundy said on Saturday that even though he doesn’t show it, he’s excited for the success of his players and what OSU has done.

“I’m excited for the players,” said Gundy. “It is what it is. I don’t want the players to ever think that emotions are taking over for me because I want them to have a clear mind and a clear head and think and play the game hard.

“People think that my attitude has changed the last two years and especially the last eight months, I’m just being who I am. I could jump up and down and fist pump but that would be fake. Same thing I go to my kids’ games. I’ve just never been that way. Don’t get me wrong, I’m very excited for the team. I’m just not going to be a guy who’s going to stand up and cheer and scream.”

He’ll leave that to the rest of us.

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