Oklahoma State Offense Derails Following Unusually Strong Start

Oklahoma State couldn’t have scripted a better opening drive in Orlando.

The Cowboys ran eight minutes off the clock, converted three separate times on third downs, and capped it off with a 5-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Zane Flores to receiver Gavin Freeman in Oklahoma State’s 17-14 loss at UCF on Saturday.

That drive might be the outlier of all outliers this season, considering OSU:

Had yet to score a touchdown on a drive lasting longer than six minutes
Converted less than 37% of third downs (ranking 98th nationally)
Had three opening drive touchdowns this season (UT-Martin, Houston and Kansas)
Had four total passing touchdowns from the quarterback position

Offenses have a huge advantage on their first possession of the game because those drives can be heavily prepped and practiced ahead of time. This is anecdotal, but seven of OSU’s FBS opponents this season scored touchdowns on their first drive, while one (Kansas) scored a field goal. Ignoring that field goal, that’s a success rate of 70%.

Oklahoma State’s opponents are scoring touchdowns this season on 40% of their overall possessions, ignoring all drives that end due to time running out. Despite scoring an opening-possession touchdown, Tulsa brings the average down quite a bit. If TU is removed from the data, OSU’s power conference opponents are scoring touchdowns 44% of the time overall and 67% of the time on opening drives. That’s still a huge deviation.

So, down in Orlando, the Cowboys finally managed to capitalize on the advantage that most teams have enjoyed all season.

The problems came when the script ran out.

Oklahoma State’s nine other drives, excluding the two that came at the end of both halves, resulted in six three-and-outs. The Cowboys converted 1-of-9 (11%) third-down attempts following the opening sequence.

“In the first half, it was just a pure, all-out mixture,” interim coach Doug Meacham said. “We jumped in and out of some personnel groupings and mixed it around with some pocket movement and some play action, some run game and some RPO stuff, and just had a good mixture. It just felt like in the second half, we kind of got in a rut a little bit.”

OSU needed 6, 2, 9 and 3 yards on the four third downs that moved the chains. It makes sense that the Cowboys would struggle on third-and-long. OSU needed at least 8 yards five times following the opening drive.

Twice, the Cowboys seemed to surrender, running Sesi Vailahi on a pair of 3rd-and-18s. Flores went 1-of-3 on the other two plays with his one completion, hitting Freeman for a gain of 7 yards when the Cowboys needed 9.

More surprising was OSU’s inability to succeed on third-and-medium or closer, converting only once following the first possession when Flores hit receiver Sam Jackson on a screen 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The former quarterback gained 9 yards to convert on 3rd-and-3 on OSU’s second and final scoring drive of the game.

Running back Rodney Fields put on his superhero cape for most of the afternoon, but he picked up only 3 yards on 3rd-and-4 then lost 1 yard on 3rd-and-1. Flores took an 8-yard sack on OSU’s remaining 3rd-and-4 play.

Just like that, an Oklahoma State team that picked up 201 yards of offense and 14 points in the first half was held to 27 total yards in the final two quarters.

“I just didn’t feel like we had the juice like we had in the first half,” Meacham said. “We were moving the ball, mixing it up, and then it seemed like we got a little one-dimensional.”

Meacham said he didn’t think UCF made any “crazy” adjustments that led to OSU’s offensive breakdown on Saturday.

“We just couldn’t muster anything on offense, for whatever reason. … So let’s see what we can do against Iowa State,” Meacham said. “That’s kind of been what’s happened to us (offensively). We’ll fight you, and then second half and kind of fade that’s been all year.”