Oklahoma State Offense Finally Looks Trustworthy, Can Cowboys Finish Strong?

It feels early to use the word fixed where Oklahoma State’s offense is concerned, but the Cowboys finally feel like something bankable on that side of the ball.

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That might sound crazy so soon after the shutout at Texas Tech, but the No. 8 Red Raiders feel like the exception, not the rule, for most teams they face this season.

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Three games into the Big 12 schedule, the Cowboys went three-and-out on 31%, 43% and 27% of their drives, respectively. Basically, one out of three drives not only accomplished nothing from a field position standpoint, but the defense also didn’t even get a real break.

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That’s a recipe for disaster. In the last three games, with Kevin Johns calling the offense, Oklahoma State went three-and-out on 11%, 35% (TTU game) and 14% of drives.

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The Cowboys have also crossed their own 40-yard line 67% and 71% of the time against Cincinnati and Kansas, respectively. Another huge jump from prior games, considering OSU failed to do that even half the time against Oregon, Arizona and Houston.

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The biggest sign of progress is OSU’s ability to find the red zone. Against UT-Martin and Tulsa, the Cowboys crossed the opponents’ 20-yard line 40% and 33% of the time, respectively. That was as good as it got. Against Kansas, OSU did so 57% of the time after hitting that point 56% of the time against the Bearcats.

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It would be an exaggeration to say it’s as simple as winning third down, but that certainly has helped. Oklahoma State moved the chains on third down a season-high 57% of the time against Kansas. The Cowboys’ second-best showing came against Cincinnati when OSU converted 46% of third downs. Even with a 29% success rate against Texas Tech sandwiched in between those two showings, OSU is converting 43% of the time on third down over the last three games.

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That would rank 45th in the nation, less than a percentage point behind Cincinnati. As it stands, the Cowboys have climbed to 99th in the nation on third down after ranking 116th headed into the last three games.

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The Cowboys made a similar climb up the national charts for time of possession, ranking 100th during the bye with an average possession time of 28 minutes. OSU ranked 117th three games ago.

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Where third downs are concerned, there’s reason to believe OSU can keep things moving in the weeks to come. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 50th on third down, while Texas Tech and Kansas check in at 18th and 63rd, respectively.

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Oklahoma State has a considerably easier trio coming up. Kansas State ranks 58th in the nation, giving up a third-down conversion 37.5% of the time. Then a trip against UCF, which ranks 17th nationally (32%), and a finale against Iowa State’s 68th-ranked third-down defense (39%).