Oklahoma State To The Playoff: Which Teams To Root For and Against

Oklahoma State is No. 10 in the CFB Playoff rankings this week with No. 8 OU on tap next weekend in Norman. A lot has to happen for OSU to slide through that back door and on into the CFB Playoff but maybe not as much as you think.

Who should you be rooting for and against over the next two weeks for OSU to have a chance at nabbing the No. 4 seed? Let’s take a look at each team in the top 10 along with remaining schedules and point spreads for this weekend’s games. Note: You can play around with the scenarios here.

No. 1 Alabama (11-0) (Auburn at home: -17, Florida in SEC title)

I told Carson on our podcast on Wednesday that Alabama should just forfeit the Iron Bowl and SEC title game to save players from injury. It will still be in the CFB Playoff.

Rooting: Doesn’t matter

No. 2 Ohio State (10-1) (Michigan at home: -6)

This one is tricky. We want Michigan to win if Penn State beats Michigan State because then Michigan would go to the Big 10 title game (it beat Penn State earlier in the year).

We are rooting for Ohio State or Michigan to win the Big 10 because if one of those schools wins the Big 10, the committee won’t be tempted to include them as a non-conference champion. Plus, Ohio State winning the Big 10 solves your OU-Ohio State Big 12 problem. If Michigan State beats Penn State then we are rooting for Ohio State to win this game and win the Big 10 because I think 10-2 Michigan is easier to leave out of the playoff than 10-2 Ohio State.

The problem is that the Michigan State-Penn State game will be played after the Ohio State-Michigan game. So what’s more likely? Michigan beating Ohio State as a six-point underdog at Ohio State, or Michigan State beating Penn State at Penn State as a 12-point underdog and Ohio State beating Michigan? I think the Michigan beating Ohio State scenario is probably more likely but I’m fine with either.

Rooting: For (if paired with Michigan State win), otherwise against

No. 3 Michigan (10-1) (at Ohio State: +6)

See above.

Rooting: For … I think.

No. 4 Clemson (10-1) (South Carolina at home: -25, ACC title against Va. Tech)

As Carson pointed out recently, Clemson losing the ACC title game could get interesting. Are you taking a 10-2 Big 12 champion or a 11-2 non-ACC champion in Clemson? I think the committee might have to go with the Big 12 champ so I’m rooting against Clemson.

Rooting: Against

No. 5 Washington (10-1) (at Washington State: -6)

Oklahoma State and Oklahoma badly need Washington State to win this game. If Washington State wins this game, it goes to the Pac-12 title game against USC or Colorado. A 10-2 Washington team that didn’t win its own division is not getting into the playoff. Then if Washington State wins the Pac-12 it isn’t getting in either because it has three losses and lost to a FCS team.

Rooting: Wildly against

No. 6 Wisconsin (9-2) (home against Minnesota: -14)

No. 7 Penn State (9-2) (home against Michigan State: -12)

We went over the Big 10 scenarios above. I would prefer Wisconsin to lose this game just so the committee isn’t tempted to put them in the CFB Playoff with a 11-2 record as Big 10 champ along with, say, Ohio State. Penn State losing and Ohio State winning the Big 10 is the dream scenario this weekend because then the Big 10 would almost assuredly get only one team in.

Rooting: Against

No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2) (Off, Bedlam)

If you did not know, OSU needs OU to lose.

No. 9 Colorado (9-2) (home against Utah: -9)

If Colorado beats Utah then it is in the Pac-12 title game. If it wins the Pac-12 title game it could get in the CFB Playoff with a 11-2 record. The better scenario for Oklahoma State? Utah beating Colorado allowing USC (with three losses) into the Pac-12 title game and then USC winning that Pac-12 title game. A three-loss USC getting in the playoff over a two-loss Big 12 team? Get all the way out of here with that. Furthermore, if you pair this with a WSU win in the Apple Cup, you would have two three-loss teams playing for the Pac-12 title.

Rooting: Against

Bottom line is this: The map for Oklahoma or Oklahoma State getting into the CFB Playoff is Alabama winning out, Virginia Tech beating Clemson in the ACC title game, three-loss USC or Washington State winning the Pac-12 and either Michigan or Ohio State winning the Big 10 in decisive fashion. You don’t need all of those things to happen, but if even most of them do, the Big 12 champion probably gets into the College Football Playoff.

What’s going to be fascinating is what will happen if Penn State wins the Big 10 and Ohio State doesn’t make it to the Big 10 Championship at 11-1 but pounds Michigan. No way Ohio State gets left out, right? But then do you take 11-2 Penn State over 10-2 OU or Oklahoma State? You probably do, right?

[puts on Charles Rogers jersey] GO SPARTY!