Oklahoma State’s Case for High NCAA Seed Still Missing Key Ingredient Halfway Through Big 12 Play

STILLWATER — Oklahoma State put an exclamation point on the first half of conference play with a 16-point win over BYU.

This feels like a good time to check in on the Cowgirls’ NCAA Tournament case. Not for an NCAA bid. To their credit, this group made the “will they make it” conversation quite boring weeks ago.

The interesting conversation is how high the Cowgirls can climb and what’s a realistic seed for this group.

Record: 17-5, (6-3 Big 12)

NET: 28th (0-2 against Quad 1; 5-2 Q2; 2-1 Q3; 9-0 Q4)

BYU (15-6) feels like a team that could finish right in the middle of the bubble conversation come March. Jacie Hoyt’s squad has been pretty clear that they’re not interested in that space anymore.

But from a resume standpoint, the Cowgirls find themselves in something of an in-between position. Clearly too talented for the bubble, but they lack the signature win that screams this team belongs in the four, five, maybe even six-seed conversation (again, this is just a resume argument not a commentary on the Cowgirls’ talent or potential).

ESPN’s season-long projections have put the Cowgirls anywhere from a fifth to a ninth seed in the NCAA Tournament, with OSU receiving an eighth seed in the latest bracketology report.

While NET ranks do not equate to NCAA Tournament placement, those have OSU receiving the very last seven seed.

It still feels like this team lacks the signature win that elevates the group into that next conversation. The Cowgirls have two remaining games against ranked opponents.

Feb. 21 at No. 22 West Virginia is basically locked in as a Quad 1 game for the Cowgirls. The Valentine’s Day home game against No. 21 Texas Tech currently only counts as a Quad 2 game for OSU, but beating ranked opponents should still carry some weight with the committee and could very well help the Cowgirls stand out in a conversation that might lack the top-end wins other tournament teams have down on paper.

Racking up Q1 wins also might be easier on the road, where OSU faces Iowa State (33rd in NET) and Arizona State (49th). Oklahoma State needs those teams to rank 45th or higher come March for these games to count in the most important column.

Best wins

Home vs Iowa St.- 32nd (Q2)

Neutral vs Miami- 47th (Q2)

Home vs Colorado- 51st (Q2)

Miami has dropped four of its last six. It’s unlikely the Hurricanes move out of quadrant two in either direction based on their results in conference play.

On the other hand, the Cyclones have won three straight since losing to the Cowgirls. They might need to either beat Oklahoma State at home on Feb. 25 or beat TCU on the road on Feb. 22 to crack the top 25 of the NET, which is what OSU needs for that game to retroactively count as a Q1 win.

Considering OSU’s case doesn’t improve if the Cowgirls lose, OSU fans might want to root for the Cyclones to upset TCU. Regardless, this win probably won’t be THE win that the committee bases OSU’s case around, considering Iowa State had multiple injuries. Still, getting a win moved into the Quadrant 1 column wouldn’t hurt, especially if it wasn’t the only one there.

Worst losses

Home vs Baylor- 27th (Q2)

At Colorado- 51st (Q2)

At St. Johns- 109th (Q3)

So far, Oklahoma State has avoided a truly devastating loss, although St. John’s is drifting dangerously close to 131st, which would make this a Q4 loss for the Cowgirls.

To put a bow on the conversation, 26 of the 28 teams ranked higher in the NET have at least one Quad 1 win, with most having multiple, including the entire top 17. Sixteen of those teams are projected to receive a five seed or higher this postseason. It’s not the only difference between OSU and some of those teams, but it might be the most significant barrier capping OSU’s seed potential.