PFB Picks: Predicting Oklahoma State’s Week 4 Game Against West Virginia

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Big 12 play is here, and the Cowboys will start their conference grind in Morgantown.

Oklahoma State plays West Virginia at 6 p.m. (Central) Saturday at Milan Puskar Stadium. But before the Big 12 action gets rolling, we need to make our picks for how we see it going.

What We’re Predicting

Uniforms: OSU has been releasing these early, but know our predictions were made before that drop. Nathan Gilsleider actually nailed the uni on The Reload. You get one point for each aspect of the uniform you correctly predict, with points on the table this week for helmet, decal, jersey number color and pants color.

Justin Bowick over/under 60 receiving yards: Bowick has surpassed this total in the Cowboys’ past two games, going for 80 yards against Oregon and 178 against Murray State. Entering a hostile environment in Big 12 play, will he be able to do it again? Or will West Virginia learn from the past two weeks and send some extra help his way?

Will OSU’s defense hold WVU over/under 35% on Third Downs: The Cowboys’ defense is the best in the country at getting off the field on third downs, with offenses converting at just a 16.2% clip. But the Mountaineers have converted 53.3% of their third downs this season. Something has to give.

TD Parlay: You can name as many players who you think will score a touchdown (passing TDs don’t count), and you get two points for each player you name. However if you name a guy who doesn’t score a touchdown, you get no points in this section.

Score: Three points are up for grabs here: one for guessing the correct winner, one for being on the right side of the spread (WVU -1.5) and one to whichever one of us gets closest to the actual score.

Marshall Scott

Uniform: Black (Cursive Cowboys)-White (Black)-Orange

Justin Bowick over/under 60 receiving yards: Under

With Bowick going nuclear against Murray State this past weekend, I think he’ll get a little extra attention from the Mountaineers, leaving the door open for another Cowboy receiver or two to step up.

Will OSU’s defense hold WVU over/under 35% on Third Downs: Under

This has been where OSU’s defense has been at its best, but West Virginia provides a unique challenge here in that the Mountaineers are so efficient at moving the ball on the ground. I think the Cowboys’ defense gets it done, but it’ll be a lot closer to 35% than the 0% Murray State mustered last weekend.

TD Parlay: Caleb Hawkins/Wyatt Young

I’m hoping this is akin to getting you 3-wood out and just keeping the ball on the fairway. Hawkins is a touchdown-scoring machine, and with me thinking Bowick will get some extra attention from the Mountaineers, give me Young to have a big game in Morgantown.

Score: Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 31

This is the most excited I’ve been going into an Oklahoma State game in a while. It’s cool to have a big, meaningful matchup again. I think both offenses are good and will have some success, but I think the difference in the game will be the Cowboys’ defense.

Kyle Cox

Uniform: White (Cursive Cowboys)-White (Orange)-Black

Justin Bowick over/under 60 receiving yards: Over

Will OSU’s defense hold WVU over/under 35% on Third Downs: Over

TD Parlay: Justin Bowick/Caleb Hawkins

Score: Oklahoma State 35, West Virginia 31

I think the Cowboys are able to corral Michael Hawkins Jr. a bit and somewhat contain the Mountaineers’ running game. Mestemaker announces himself to the Big 12 in style with a big outing.

Tyler Waldrep

Uniform: Black (Cursive Cowboys)-White (Black)-Black

Justin Bowick over/under 60 receiving yards: Over

I firmly believe Justin Bowick is Oklahoma State’s true No. 1 receiver. I expect him to lead the team in targets most nights and think he will be the primary read more often than Wyatt Young. With all that said, it feels obvious to predict OSU will have a receiver top 60.

Will OSU’s defense hold WVU over/under 35% on Third Downs: Over

West Virginia went three-and-out five times last week against Virginia. I expect the Cowboys to force a similar amount this week, but I do think West Virginia’s offense moves so fast the Mountaineers will just have more drives than most teams, and I think they capitalize on enough third-and-mediums to hit the over here.

TD Parlay: Caleb Hawkins/Justin Bowick/Carson Kolb

Last week West Virginia allowed a running back and tight end to catch touchdown passes in the red zone and another tight end and another running back led UVA in receiving yards. I was close to picking Ayo Adeyi here, so watch him score this week. I’m fading OSU’s talented slot receivers in part because I believe West Virginia slot corner Geimere Latimer is one of the team’s strengths. However, Morris has proven he can scheme these guys up with favorable matchups. Cards on the table, I covered Latimer when he dominated at Jax State in 2023, so I could be biased.

Score: Oklahoma State 27, West Virginia 20

I think Oklahoma State’s offensive line will struggle here somewhat similar to the Tulsa game, but I also expect a better pocket presence from quarterback Drew Mestemaker. As my score indicates I’m predicting a little bit more of a defensive slugfest this weekend. I do think OSU’s defense does a solid job inside and the Cowboys typically do a good job responding to stuff on the perimeter. So I think Oklahoma State gets it done on defense and Mestemaker and the offense do enough to leave a rowdy Morgantown with the team’s first Big 12 win since 2023.

Scoreboard

Kyle went from outhouse to penthouse last week when he was the only one of us to nail his touchdown parlay.

Nathan is already in a good spot this week nailing the uniform pick, but those parlays have already proven they can make big swings in momentum.

1. Kyle Cox — 14 points
T2. Justin Southwell — 12 points
T2. Nathan Gilsleider — 12 points
T4. Tyler Waldrep — 11 points
T4. Marshall Scott — 11 points