PFB Picks: Predicting OSU’s Texas Bowl Matchup with Texas A&M

Oklahoma State will play its 14th-straight bowl game on Friday night when it faces off against former Big 12 rival Texas A&M. The Aggies are 4.5-point favorites in nearby Houston but here’s how we see things shaking out.

Final Score

Kyle Porter: Texas A&M 27 | OSU 21 — I don’t know what I’m getting Sanders, and as the last two regular season games proved, OSU without Sander is basically “hand it to Chuba and pray.” I don’t love that against a seasoned A&M team. Although I will say a lot of this will come down to who has actually wanted to be there. Neither team fell too far below expectations so I don’t think there will be a complete ejection on the process or the game, but the potential is always there when it comes to bowls (related: I still can’t believe Chuba is playing).

Kyle Boone: Texas A&M 48 | Oklahoma State 27 — I don’t love it, but I think we’re about to find out exactly what it looks like in primetime when you’re outmatched with talent. Remember the Ole Miss Sugar Bowl in 2016? I’m catching similar vibes. This is a good OSU team, but I think it will be outclassed talent-wise. The caliber of player A&M recruits isn’t even in the same ball park as OSU.

Kyle Cox: Oklahoma State 28 | Texas A&M 21 — I see a somewhat lower-scoring affair. OSU’s defense is a little beat up but should be eager to prove that its late stretch of improved play was no fluke. And A&M hasn’t scored more than 30 since its game against UTSA on Nov. 2, and did it only twice against two P5 opponents — Mississippi State and Arkansas who combined for eight wins.

Marshall Scott: Oklahoma State 35 | Texas A&M 24 — If Chuba wasn’t playing, I’d take A&M, but he is. I think OSU is taking the game more seriously than the Aggies with him playing. Justin Madubuike is skipping, and I read something yesterday that A&M has one scholarship running back available.

When does Chuba hit 2k? The first quarter? The first play?

Porter: Chuba doesn’t hit 2K until late in the third. A&M is stout, and they know what they’re getting. They’ll try and erase him and let Landon Wolf and Dillon Stoner beat them (because they probably won’t). When he does hit it, though, we have some slick little shirts that we’ll put out there. Excited about that.

Boone: It only takes one with Chuba, and the way he’s started games this season, I’ll roll with a first-half prediction. He’s broken some big ones early against good opponents and I think he can get a couple early chunk plays to knock it out before half.

Cox: First quarter. I’m all in. A&M is decent limiting big runs (T60th on opponent rushes of 10 or more), but you know who is better? Baylor, Texas, Tulsa and Iowa State. Chuba made plays against all of them and, being just 64 yards short, just one of those highlight reel runs could be enough to hit that historic mark.

Scott: I’ll say second quarter. I imagine Texas A&M will do everything possible to stop him early, but he’ll keep coming.

X-Factor for OSU

Porter: X-factor for OSU is how much and how well Sanders plays. Pictures of him in a thumb brace the day before the game don’t engender a ton of excitement in me, although I don’t know how much of your thumb you need to run zone reads all night. Darkhorse x-factor is how KHP’s replacement plays. He’s been monumental over the last two months, and I’m bummed that he’s not going to be out there.

Boone: How well does the secondary hold up without Kolby Harvell-Peel? I don’t think we’re giving enough credence to how great he’s been this season. Without him, even a quarterback like Kellen Mond could wind up having success throwing on OSU. How much success — and how much passing A&M will need to do — is perhaps the bigger question.

Cox: I’m going with Spencer Sanders, and how effective he can be. If he’s 100 percent that gives Oklahoma State so many other options on offense.

Scott: The two-QB system. I want them both on the field at the same time. All the stuff we were dreaming about preseason when watching Gleeson’s Princeton film.