Portal History Outlines Three Paths for Oklahoma State in 2026 After Additions of Multiple Top Commits

PORTAL TRACKER

STILLWATER — Oklahoma State is in uncharted territory.

Over the weekend, Oklahoma State wrapped up two commitments from two of the top portal prospects in the nation.

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker ranked third, fourth, and sixth among 247Sports, On3 and ESPN. Running back Caleb Hawkins ranked eighth, 16th and 21st.

The transfer portal seems to get more chaotic each season, but it first got really big during the 2022 offseason. In the last four recruiting cycles, only 12 teams in the country have recruited multiple unanimous top 25 prospects, and Auburn 2025, Texas Tech 2025 and Florida 2024 came close enough to doing so that they deserve to be included as well. So, that brings the total up to 15.

There’s a bigger point to be made, but just stop and appreciate what Eric Morris is doing. Oklahoma State, a team which seemingly hit rock bottom in 2024 before cratering to a new low this fall, has now done something only 12 programs (Oregon, Alabama and Texas all doubled up) have done.

Nine of those 15 teams finished with at least nine wins before they hit it big in the portal. Of the remaining six, Auburn (5-7 in 2024), Florida (5-7 in 2023), Texas (5-7 in 2021) and USC (4-8 in 2021) all finished with losing records before getting at least two top commits in the portal.

The gap between those teams and the 1-11 Cowboys widens when you look at where the programs were at the two seasons before the top portal guys showed up.

Two-year record:

2020-21 USC: 9-9

2020-21 Texas: 12-10

2022-23 Florida: 11-14

2023-24 Auburn: 11-14

2024-25 OSU: 4-20

The starting points are far from the same, but as the portal (and the playoff) gets bigger, the ability to turn things around in only one season has grown exponentially.

The four teams above paint three different paths for Oklahoma State in 2026.

The Auburn Path

This is by far the scariest (and probably least likely) path.

The Tigers went 5-7 in 2024, then added the portal’s unanimous top receiver and second or fourth-best offensive lineman.

The Tigers fired coach Hugh Freeze this fall after a 4-5 start, which turned into a second-consecutive 5-7 finish.

It would be shocking to see the Cowboys finish 1-11 or even 2-10 with such a significant upgrade at quarterback, so OSU fans should be able to focus on one of the other options.

The Texas Path

Both Texas and Florida turned 5-7 seasons into 8-5 finishes after hitting on some portal prospects. Of the two, Texas is the best comparison to the Cowboys.

Steve Sarkisian, then entering year two in Austin, brought in the No. 2 portal quarterback Quinn Ewers and the best or second-best portal tight end. The Longhorns also added the No. 3/4 receiver, but he missed the year with a fall camp injury. Ewers actually also missed a 3.5-game stretch that included a 1-point loss to Alabama and an overtime loss at Texas Tech.

There’s a compelling case that Texas is at least in the playoff conversation without Ewers’ injury. A good reminder of how much of a difference exceptional quarterback play makes.

That’s the main reason the Florida comp doesn’t work. The Gators added a cornerback ranked 21st by both 247Sports and On3 (ESPN ranks weren’t readily available before 2023) and an interior offensive lineman ranked seventh overall on one site and 27th on another. Good additions, but those positions don’t usually go high in the NFL Draft for a reason. It’s hard to flip a team around them.

The USC Path

There are a lot of comparisons to Oklahoma State here, which bodes well for the Cowboys.

USC brought in Lincoln Riley after the Trojans finished with their worst season in 30 years and one of only two losing seasons in that stretch. Riley didn’t show up empty handed.

He brought his quarterback of choice from Oklahoma in Caleb Williams, who ranked No. 1 overall on both On3 and 247Sports databases.

Two other Sooners followed them to LA, including receiver Mario Williams, who ranked ninth overall or 39th depending on the site. Receiver Jordan Addison was the unanimous top portal receiver, leaving Pitt to join the Trojans.

USC finished 10th in the final CFP rankings that next season and would have been the final at-large selected in a 12-team playoff in 2022.

It’s too early in the Morris era to fall back into the same sort of postseason hype that gripped Oklahoma State ahead of the 2024 season. Still, USC rode Williams (almost 5,000 total yards) and Addison (team-high 875 receiving yards and eight touchdowns) to seven additional wins.

Just that level of improvement would put the Cowboys back in the postseason with an 8-5 or 9-4 record, depending on how the bowl game played out.

Out of the entire list, six of the 15 teams gained at least three wins the following season. Considering Oklahoma State added a top quarterback (not all of them added one at all), that could arguably be the worst-case scenario for the Cowboys.

As of Monday afternoon, 247Sports ranks the Cowboys’ portal class second overall behind only Penn State. On3 ranks OSU 21st overall and sixth in the Big 12, but that’s a significant improvement from the past three cycles, where OSU finished 30th, 60th and 57th overall.