Predictions for the 2025 Oklahoma State Football Season

I’m not sure predicting an OSU season has ever been easy, but with almost an entirely new staff and roster, what could possibly go wrong?

A year ago, myself, Kyle Cox and Dekota Gregory all picked the Cowboys to win at least 10 games and the Big 12 title. So, at the very least, this post will provide us something to look back on and laugh at ourselves about.

Oklahoma State opens its season at 6:30 p.m. Thursday in Boone Pickens Stadium against UT-Martin. Before the year gets underway, though, here is how we see the Cowboys’ season going.

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Offensive MVP

Tyler: Hauss Hejny — Quarterbacks have the edge when it comes to MVP awards, and I just think the backfield might have too many mouths to feed early on for any of the backs to overcome that. Josh Ford, like many Cowboy tight ends before him, won’t get enough targets in the passing game, and there’s too much depth at receiver to predict one of those winning the argument against the guy throwing them the ball. Don’t worry, there’s more on Hejny below.

Kyle: Hauss Hejny — I could obviously be way off on this one, since Gundy and Co. were no closer to announcing QB1 last weekend, but from the outside looking in, I think it makes sense to expect the more mobile QB who fits in Doug Meachum’s system to get a shot. Let’s hope for good QB competition but a clear-cut starter.

Marshall: Hauss Hejny — This would obviously require Hejny to win the starting job, which a few days out from kickoff, I’m still not sure about, but I’m still leaning that way. I’m ready to see his speed rather than hearing his teammates talk about it, but if he (or Flores) shows to be a solid quarterback who can make plays by air or by land, it could unlock some different expectations for the Cowboys.

Defensive MVP

Tyler: Bryan McCoy Jr. — I’m pretty sure Oklahoma State’s most talented defensive players will largely line up in the secondary. Still, it’s really hard for one of those guys to make an MVP-level impact. The likely sack-leaders could face heavy internal competition, so the safe bet feels like the tackling machine from Akron, who also happens to feel like one of the few players on defense who might face the least internal competition for playing time.

Kyle: Malik Charles — There has been buzz surrounding several incoming transfers but maybe none more than Charles. He’s been productive at his former stops but needs to take that step up in talent level. Fortunately, he’s put in the work and added 30 pounds to his frame.

Marshall: Jaleel Johnson — This season provides the perfect opportunity for Johnson to show off the developments he’s made since getting to campus in 2022. There might not be a player who looks the part as much as the 6-foot-5, 265-pound Johnson. He’s gotten on the field the past two seasons despite having more experienced guys ahead of him, and this year feels like the time for him to take that next step.

Passing Yards Leader

Tyler: Hauss Hejny — Hejny has the long-time relationship with new OC Doug Meacham. He also got more recognition from his teammates than Zane Flores in our player poll. It’s hard to feel confident that he or Flores has locked down the job based on their inexperience and Gundy’s remarks. However, it feels foolish to ignore the signs pointing to the TCU transfer.

Kyle: Hauss Hejny — For my above prediction to be true, this needs to also be true.

Marshall: Hauss Hejny — I like to see that we aren’t hedging our bets on this one. We’ll either be right or wrong together.

Rushing Yards Leader

Tyler: Rodney Fields Jr. — If Oklahoma State is going to lean on a guy, I think they have to excel as a passcatcher and pick up tough yards after contact. Rodney Fields and Freddie Brock IV feel the best equipped to do both this season. Fields gets the slightest of nods because he was here in the spring, but Kalib Hicks might have the most explosiveness of the group if he can earn the playing time.

Kyle: Freddie Brock IV — With so much turnover at the position, it’s hard to really know how these rotations and handoffs shake out. But with his experience and physical traits, I think Brock is about as safe a pick as any to get the production.

Marshall: Rodney Fields Jr. — This prompt took me the longest to commit to something. I think it’s one of Rodney Fields, Trent Howland or Kalib Hicks, but in what order, I have not a clue. I want to lean Hicks because he looked so good in the spring game and would’ve scored like four times had it not been for early whistles. Meanwhile, Howland feels like the forgotten man in this backfield despite averaging 5.6 yards a carry last season. Maybe it’s the Okie bias in me, but I’m getting Justice Hill vibes from Fields.

Receiving Yards Leader

Tyler: Christian Fitzpatrick — I have receiver as the deepest position on the team headed into the season, but I think the Marshall transfer emerges as the top option. He’s earned the most praise from his teammates this offseason, and he leads the room with 1,185 snaps and a team-high 848 receiving yards at the FBS level.

Kyle: Terrill Davis — I’m giving the nod to TD based on his production at D2 level and giving him some credit for being able to make the step up in competition. There’s a blueprint for Cowboy receivers making a similar step up of late.

Marshall: Christian Fitzpatrick — I think Patrick is the pick here. The Cowboys are deep at receiver, but not many of those guys have Fitzpatrick’s measurables and proven production. Listed at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Fitzpatrick has recorded 819 receiving yards and seven touchdowns across the past two seasons — one at Michigan State and the most recent at Marshall. I love the Cowboys’ depth in the slot, but it can be hard for slot receivers to have more yards than those outside guys.

Top Tackler

Tyler: Bryan McCoy Jr. — The Akron transfer has 237 career tackles and finished eighth in the FBS last season when he averaged 10 per game. Other than one brief shoutout, his name hasn’t come up much in interviews, but I think that is because what he might lack in drive-altering plays behind the line of scrimmage, he makes up for in explosiveness.

Kyle: Bryan McCoy Jr. — McCoy led Akron the last two seasons in tackles, and I think he continues that trend in Stillwater. He ranked eighth in the FBS last season, averaging 10 tackles per outing.

Marshall: Bryan McCoy Jr. — It’s the safe pick and on a team where there aren’t very many safe picks, give me the guy who made 120 tackles last season and 94 the year before.

Sack Leader

Tyler: Kyran Duhon — The UTEP transfer recorded all seven of his sacks in his final seven games last season. His breakout coincided with an increased workload. Although most of this came against lesser competition than he faces this fall, Duhon recorded one sack and four tackles against Tennessee last season, which provides something of a proof of concept for him as a noteworthy Cowboy.

Kyle: Wendell Gregory — With so much being unclear, I’ll take a flyer on the converted high school linebacker. He was voted the defensive player to turn the most heads by his teammates.

Marshall: Jaleel Johnson — Well, if I picked an edge rusher for my defensive MVP, I probably ought to pick him as my sack leader. He’s made three sacks across the last two seasons in a more limited role. There seems to be a lot of quality competition among the guys coming off the edge, but I think Johnson’s frame and his Big 12 experience carry him to the top of OSU’s sack chart.

Newcomer of the Year (Transfer or Freshman)

Tyler: Freddie Brock IV– With so many new guys on the team, even if you gave me Duhon, McCoy, Fitzpatrick and Hejny, I would encourage you to take the field and that is sort of what I’ve done here. All of those guys should seemingly face heavy competition (except McCoy). Since all of this stuff is close, I’m going to chase the single Cowboy with the biggest upside here, and that is Brock, who could be a monster at running back if he wins the starting job early.

Kyle: DeAndre Boykins — I could drop a number of names in this slot but for the sake of variety I’ll go with the former Tarheel. He might not put up the flashiest numbers, but he’s got a chance to make an immediate impact on the backend of OSU’s defense.

Marshall: Bryan McCoy Jr. — I just feel the most confident that McCoy will be a big piece of this OSU defense. Hejny is in a QB battle, and there are multiple mouths to feed at receiver and running back. So, I think the safest bet is McCoy.

Regular Season Record

Tyler: 7-5 — I worry about what happens to the season if this group starts off 2-3 or 2-4 and at least two of those losses come in blowout fashion. Despite that concern, I’m going to predict Oklahoma State goes 2-1 in non-conference, which feels like a lock. I like the Cowboys to win at least two (but more likely three) of their first four Big 12 games. I feel like Boone Pickens Stadium is due for an upset this season against either Kansas State or Iowa State in November. Add in a favorable nailbiter on the road at Kansas or at UCF, and Oklahoma State is right there in the 6-7 win range.

Kyle: 6-6 — Eh, I don’t have any clue. Six wins isn’t sexy, but it would be a significant improvement (especially since on of those Ls comes in the nonconference), and it restarts the bowl streak.

Marshall: 7-5 — I picked OSU to win 10 games last season, so I wouldn’t go running to Vegas. It’s going to take a strong start to the year. There’s a bit of a turning point in OSU’s conference schedule (between the Cincinnati and Texas Tech games) where things turn up a notch or two, but I think it’s navigable enough for the Cowboys to get back to a bowl.

Big 12 Titles Participants

Tyler: Arizona State vs. TCU — I have Arizona State, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech in the 7-2 or 6-3 range in the Big 12 this season. For now, I’m going to pick the quarterbacks I trust most (Sam Leavitt at ASU and Josh Hoover at TCU) to get their teams through what is sure to be a chaotic mess. In this conference, truly anything could happen, but outside of those five, BYU would be the team I could picture crashing the party the most after last season’s strong start.

Kyle: Kansas State vs. Texas Tech

Marshall: Arizona State vs. Texas Tech — Admittedly, had we finished these predictions before this weekend, I would’ve had the Sun Devils playing Kansas State in Jerry World. But, I still don’t feel horrible about Tech and all its money also finding a way to Arlington.

Big 12 Champion

Tyler: TCU — I think Arizona State wins the first matchup between these teams at home. They also have a much easier path to the conference title game. Beating the same team twice is difficult, plus I’m not sure the Sun Devils have what it takes to overcome the Big 12’s brand of chaos and the bright spotlight that follows the defending conference champs.

Kyle: Kansas State

Marshall: Arizona State — This is probably a dumb choice given the past five Big 12 champions have all been different, but here in late August, I have the Sun Devils going back to back because of quarterback play and the fact that Kenny Dillingham has already proven he can win in this hectic portal era.