Preview: Purdue

Photo Attribution: US Presswire

Vitals

Time: 11:00 AM
Location: Dallas, TX
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Online radio: here
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Matt Stinchcomb and Kaylee Hartung
Line: OSU -17

Records

Cowboys – 7-5 (5-4)
Boilermakers – 6-6 (3-5)

FEI Rank[1. Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) College football rating system created by Brian Fremeau based on measuring the success rate of a college football team scoring and preventing opponent scores during the non-garbage possessions of a game. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.]

Cowboys – #15
Boilermakers – #76

Best win

Cowboys – TCU (FEI rank: #24)
Boilermakers – Iowa (FEI rank: #63)

Second best win

Cowboys – Iowa State (FEI rank: #37)
Boilermakers – Indiana (FEI rank: #68)

Worst loss

Cowboys – Arizona (FEI rank: #40)
Boilermakers – Minnesota (FEI Rank: #74)

Strength of schedule (to date)

Cowboys – 6th
Boilermakers – 26th

Data nerds

[table id=74 /]

OFEI: Offensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team’s offense.
DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team’s defense.
STE: Special Teams Efficiency, the scoring value earned by field goal, punt and kickoff units measured in points per average game.

Three stats

1. OSU will have the all-time bowl winning percentage record if they win today. Wow.
2. Quinn Sharp’s career FG percentage is 84%. Nothing to do with the game, just thought it was interesting (and really high).
3. Purdue lost to Notre Dame and Ohio State by a combined 10 points.

Spread

The spread is 17, which seems high until you read the FEI spread which is more like 27. I think it’s going to be either an absolute evisceration (think the Tech game) or a close game. So take OSU and the points.

Other spread

Three places to eat while you’re in Big D…

1. Maple & Motor – great burgers and milkshakes, real hole in the wall.
2. Twisted Root – fried pickles are unbelievable.
3. Eno’s Pizza – in a place called Bishop Arts District which has a ton of cool eateries, but this is our favorite.
4. Rusty Taco – best bang for your buck taco joint in Dallas.
5. Zenna Thai – our favorite, it’s in Plano (20 miles north of Dallas) but it’s money.

How worried I am (out of 10)

Three things to watch

1. Letdown – Everybody keeps talking about the letdown effect of playing in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. I don’t think that is (or ever will be) an issue with Gundy running the show. You can make the argument there was a letdown against Baylor but I think that was more an issue of having an empty tank emotionally after a classic Bedlam affair just six days earlier. If OSU loses, it won’t be because they weren’t ready.

2. Offensive circus – And I’m not talking about the greatest show on turf. For all I know Wes Lunt will be calling plays from the press box in the first half. “Ok, if we’re inside the 20 going towards the north side of the field, you got the plays, Wickline.” “If it’s the third quarter and we’re up by 15+ I’ve got it.” It’s going to be a total zoo. Hopefully by halftime Chelf will just say “eff it” and go it alone for the second half.

3. Nothing to lose – The part that scares me about Purdue is that they have absolutely nothing to lose by playing this game. If they get blown out, great, they were supposed to. If they win, amazing, they have something to build on next year. OSU, on the other hand, has a lot of questions to answer if it slips from “in the driver’s seat for the Cotton Bowl” to “lost to the team whose best win coming into the bowl game was Iowa” in just 10.5 quarters…

Predictions

Pistolsboy: 52-31 OSU