Scott: Three Predictions for the 2024 Oklahoma State Football Season

Last and perhaps least, I have three more Oklahoma State football predictions ahead of the 2024 season.

We did our traditional predictions on Monday before Kyle and Dekota shared six more (three apiece) the past few days. So, I’ll close out our 2024 OSU predictions with three of my own ahead of OSU’s season opener against South Dakota State at 1 p.m. Saturday in Boone Pickens Stadium

1. At Worst, the Cowboys Split Their First Two Big 12 Games

Whether it be in the nonconference or in Big 12 play, the Cowboys don’t have the luxury of getting up to speed. They have to hit the ground running.

OSU opens up the Big 12 portion of its schedule by hosting Utah on Sept. 21. A week later, the Pokes are in Manhattan for a tilt with Kansas State. Those are the only two teams that were picked ahead of OSU in the preseason poll, meaning it feels paramount the Cowboys win at least one of those games to propel their aspirations of a Big 12 title and a spot in the 12-team playoff.

I think the challenge OSU’s nonconference games provide will set the Cowboys up to take advantage of that big opportunity at the start of Big 12 play. There is some margin for error there. The Cowboys proved as much last season when they lost to Iowa State to start league play but still made it to Arlington. A split against Utah and Kansas State is all that feels necessary. Winning both of those games, and the conference all a sudden runs through Stillwater.

I’m more confident OSU will beat Utah than K-State based on the fact of game locations. I think Boone Pickens Stadium is going to be a hornet’s nest on Sept. 21 given the hype the Cowboys carry into the season and the fact that the fanbase is well aware that the Utes are projected to win the conference. The other side of that, I was in Manhattan the last time the Cowboys played there — a 48-0 defeat in 2022.

Whichever way it shakes out, I think at worst the Cowboys will enter October with a 1-1 conference record, which should set up for a fun race to Arlington for all teams involved.

2. Alan Bowman Leads the League in Passing

It looks as if there will be some good quarterback play in the Big 12 this season, but I think the Cowboys’ passer will lead the group in yardage.

Shedeur Sanders, Cam Rising, Avery Johnson, Jalon Daniels, Garrett Greene, KJ Jefferson — the list goes on of quarterbacks ready to make a name for themselves in this league.

Bowman finished last season third in the league in passing behind OU’s Dillon Gabriel and Texas’ Quinn Ewers, but Bowman impressively beat out the rest of the league despite splitting reps with two other quarterbacks for the opening three weeks. Even more impressive, Bowman still led the Big 12 in pass attempts despite the stop-start nature of those first three weeks, and he led the conference by quite the margin — his 501 pass attempts were 104 more than anyone else in the Big 12.

So, that’s one aspect as to why I think Bowman will lead the league. Another is how good the skill players around him are. Ollie Gordon is going to demand teams to dedicate extra bodies to the box. If not, good luck to them. That should in turn leave more room on the outside, where Bowman has the likes of Brennan Presley, De’Zhaun Stribling and Rashod Owens (and don’t forget about Talyn Shettron).

Lastly, not only will Bowman not have to suffer statistically from the three-quarterback rotation of last season, but it should also allow him to enter the year in more of a rhythm. He had all of last season and all of this offseason to get in tune with his guys, which should only help. Plus, there’s this aspect:

“Definitely a lot more confident,” Bowman said last week. “I think the stress of going out there and not making mistakes is tough from last year to this year. Not saying I’m gonna go out there and make mistakes, but there’s no fear in that, ‘Hey, you know what, if I do something wrong here …,’ you know what I mean? I’m not playing on as many eggshells as, you could say, that I was last year. I can play a little bit more free, which has clarity in the mind, which actually ends up making you play better.”

3. Collin Oliver Breaks Leslie O’Neal’s Sack Record

It’s hard to imagine, but Collin Oliver is a senior.

It seems like just a few months ago that Oliver was bringing down Caleb Williams to seal Bedlam glory for the Cowboys during Oliver’s true freshman season. Time moves quickly.

Oliver has 22.5 sacks entering 2024 — good for fifth on OSU’s career list. He’s 5.5 sacks behind Emmanuel Ogbah for fourth, but I think everyone ahead of Oliver needs to be on the lookout. Leslie O’Neal is atop that list with 34 career sacks — 11.5 ahead of Oliver. Funnily enough, Oliver had 11.5 sacks in that true freshman season of his. He hasn’t hit those highs since, turning in five sacks in 2022 before six last season. But it sounds as if Oliver will spend a little more time back on the edge this season after moving to linebacker last year.

OSU fans think incredibly highly of Oliver’s abilities, but given the passage of time, O’Neal’s name has an aura about it that it’s hard to think of another defender matching him. Shoot, O’Neal is going in the Ring of Honor this season — the first OSU defensive player to do so. He’s a College Football Hall of Famer. He was a first round pick. He was a Pro Bowler. All that is to say, that’s the type of player Oliver is chasing down this season, so enjoy watching No. 30 while you can, Cowboy fans.