Since Moving To 10 Teams, Here’s How The Big 12 Was Won

Defense wins championships. Even in the Big 12. Since moving to 10 teams back in 2011, every Big 12 title winner did the following things:

• Finished in the top three in the Big 12 in turnover margin
• Finished with an 8-1 record in conference play
• Finished with a top four defense in points per drive allowed

Don’t believe me? Look. Here are the ranks of all the Big 12 champions since 2011 (I, unlike the Big 12, only count outright winners).

Oklahoma State finished No. 1 in turnover margin in 2013 and 2015 and didn’t win the conference. Baylor’s 2014 defense was the “worst defense” to win the league since it went to 10 teams.

Now look at the profiles of the two teams this year that have a chance of winning the conference. Only one fits the template of an outright Big 12 champion.

Oklahoma has an historically atrocious defense for Oklahoma (more on this later on in the week) and currently ranks N0. 7 in points per drive allowed. No. 7! I put it at No. 6 though because the numbers for last week aren’t out yet, but I believe Baylor will drop below OU after whatever it was they did at AT&T Stadium on Saturday against Patty Mahomes.

Furthermore, the worst points-per-drive number we have seen from a Big 12 champion is 1.91 from Baylor in 2014. OU’s is currently over 2.4! Here is a look at the current turnover margin leaderboard.

OU could flip this board around if it wins the turnover battle 3-0 or something like that, but it would have to win it 5-0 or better to actually finish ahead of OSU.

Does any of this mean Oklahoma State should be the favorite in Norman? Of course not. But if OU wins the Big 12 on Saturday, it will go against the recent trend we have seen since 2011 of great defenses and teams that create a ton of turnovers winning the Big 12 conference.

It would also prove the conference critics right for once about the Big 12 lacking defensive prowess. That has largely been a false narrative, but OU winning the league this year with one of its worst defenses under Bob Stoops would bad for the league and its general perception.

Which is obviously why you should root for Oklahoma State to win.