Steve Lutz Explains Late-Game Strategy in TCU Loss

After battling all night and finally taking a lead just a few moments before, the Cowboys got their hearts ripped out in Fort Worth on Wednesday night when Vasean Allette hit a turnaround 3 in the final seconds of the Pokes’ 73-72 loss to TCU.

The play was set up off a three-quarter court heave with 3.2 seconds left. The pass looked intended for Micah Robinson, but it went over he and Chi Chi Avery into Allette’s waiting hands. What’s more brutal is that Allette is a career 22% 3-point shooter.

In close games, the final play and the leadup to it are often put under a microscope, and that’s no different here. Oklahoma State coach Steve Lutz on Thursday talked through some of his thought processes on how it all went down.

To get to the inbound pass, Brandon Newman split a pair of free throws, missing the first and hitting the second. The question has been posed as to whether it would’ve been better for Newman to intentionally miss the second to force the Horned Frogs to go the length of the floor. OSU also didn’t guard the inbound pass, instead electing to double team Noah Reynolds, the Horned Frogs’ leading scorer, in the backcourt.

“With 2.2 seconds, I would absolutely miss that free throw,” Lutz said. “With 3.2 seconds, that’s an extra dribble, and TCU in close games this year has gotten Reynolds that basketball and he’s been able to get down the floor and get off a good shot. So really, you’re just playing the percentages, right? The percentages would tell you, you miss that shot, you’ve gotta get a 3 off from 75 feet instead of 25 feet, so those percentages tell you yes, but the percentages also tell you that if Reynolds has that basketball and gets two dribbles, he’s past half court. That’s a normal shot for him. That’s a shot he can make. …

“If you paid attention enough to the game, you know that in both of those sideline out of bounds situations late, they ran the ball to Reynolds, and Reynolds took the shot. I knew that ball was going to Reynolds. My thought was your percentages are going to be less if you make them throw that ball length of the floor and you give yourself an opportunity to defend it. To their credit, they did it.”

Although the game’s final 30 or so seconds was the major talking point, Lutz pointed to his team getting outrebounded and handily beaten in 50-50 balls. The Horned Frogs have been outrebounded in 14 games this season, and in those games, they are 3-11. TCU outrebounded OSU 35-34, and in a game that ended on a last-second shot, one or two rebounds could’ve gone a long way.

As for the final sequence, Lutz said he’ll continue to stand by the scouting work he and his staff put in.

“You’ll never find a time that myself and our staff haven’t done our homework so that we know the best options down the line,” Lutz said. “And everything held true. They were going to Reynolds. We kind of double-teamed Reynolds, therefore they went to Option 2, which was to throw it length of the floor. Anytime you get in those situations, man, it’s 50-50 at best. We just didn’t make the play, and they made the play. Anybody that wants to challenge our line of thinking, I’d be happy to sit down and say, OK, they played 19 games. Did you watch 19 films? Well, if you haven’t then you really shouldn’t have an opinion. We’ve done our job, just didn’t work out in our favor.”