Three Things to Know about Oklahoma State’s Trip to UCF

The Cowboys are headed to “The Bounce House” this weekend for their final road game of 2025. Will they finally get that elusive first conference win or will this trip resemble the last time the Pokes travelled to Orlando?

It’s going to be Senior Knight at UCF and at least a handful of their outgoing players will remember when they laid the hammer on the visiting Pokes 45-3 in 2023. That was back when a blowout loss still felt like a rarity to the Cowboys.

The Knights are just 1-6 in Big 12 play having beat up on West Virginia 45-13 a month ago. Aside from that game, however, UCF has scored more than 20 points just once in conference play (a 30-27 loss to Houston) and resides just slightly above the Cowboys in most statistical categories that matter.

Let’s take a look at three things to know about this matchup which could go a long way in deciding who comes out on top.

1. It Might Get Ugly

The Cowboys and Knights, among other undesirable similarities share the distinction of being the only two teams in the Big 12 with more interceptions than passing touchdowns. Oklahoma State has thrown for six scores to eight picks while UCF’s ratio is 7:9. Only four other teams in the FBS have thrown fewer than eight passing TDs.

In the last four games, UCF has thrown seven INTs, but OSU is coming off a season-worst three picks against Kansas State. (Though, we tried our best to explain away a couple of those by Zane Flores.) Overall, both teams are a net negative in turnover margin on the year. Maybe it will just be an exercise in which team can make fewer mistakes.

2. Jaden Nixon Is Still Electric

UCF does field a capable run game with the duo of Myles Montgomery and former Cowboy Jaden Nixon handling the handoffs. Montgomery leads the way with 595 yards and four scores on 118 attempts while Nixon is boasting that YPC. In just 61 tries, he’s chewed up 517 yards of turf and has seven scores. That’s 8.5 (!!) yards per attempt. This is a year after he tore it up for 919 yards and 12 TDs at Western Michigan.

What’s even crazier is that Nixon is averaging more yards per play on third down (11.4) than second (8.9) and more on second than first (7.8). I wasn’t sure how common this was, so I just plugged in some of the league’s top rushers and many of those tended to be the opposite. It’s quite possibly the worst type of cherry-picked stat because it’s dictated on the plays that are called and how a defense plays on that down and distance.

That’s inflated a bit based on a third-and-short that he took for 66 yards and a score. But he’ll be bent on reminding Cowboy fans just how electric he can be.

3. The Knights’ Defense Could Give Them the Edge

Remember what I said about the ugly passing offenses we’re likely to see? UCF’s defense actually makes up for that a bit.

The Knights are second in the Big 12 allowing just 180.8 passing yards per game. No team has thrown for 300 yards against UCF with Baylor coming the closest at 267 and three TDs.

They’ve held six of their nine FBS opponents below their current passing average with the others (Kansas, Houston and Texas Tech) exceeding theirs by an average of 4.5 yards. Pro Football Focus ranks UCF 20th in overall defense and 19th in coverage.

All that to say, for an OSU team that’s had a hard enough with consistency in the passing game, it probably won’t be much easier in Orlando.