Was the Texas Upset an Inflection Point for OSU, Or Merely a One-Off?

Oklahoma State was a 3-point home underdog against Texas for homecoming. It escaped with a 3-point upset, giving it the biggest win of the season, and one of the biggest momentum-swingers over the last few seasons.

Everything’s great when you’re winning, which makes the two-game skid against Iowa State and Kansas State feel like eons away. But will this unexpected momentum spark a streak? Or was this upset win no more than a Gundy special — a kitchen sink game in which the staff had a near-perfect gameplan that may not be replicable moving forward?

Here’s what we know, what remains a question mark, and why there’s reason for optimism as the Cowboys prep for an upcoming gauntlet of Baylor, OU, West Virginia and TCU.

1. OSU’s offensive line might … be good again?

The Cowboys threw out some new wrinkles against the Longhorns to help with some of their rushing issues, like two-back sets with Chuba and Justice (be still, my heart). They also ran I-formation (!), and rolled Cornelius out often, giving the OL more opportunity to be successful.

It worked, too. OSU logged 181 yards rushing as a team and Cornelius was an efficient 23 of 34 for 321 and three passing TDs.

If OSU’s temporary adjustments against UT turn into permanent fixes up front for the Pokes, the reintegration of Justice Hill and Chuba Hubbard as focal points in OSU’s offense should take the pressure off Cornelius on offense, thus putting the ball in the hands of the team’s most lethal offensive weapons, and opening up play action opportunities for #CorndogToWallace.

2. Will we get more Texas Corn, or K State Corn?

Taylor Cornelius was excellent against Texas. He was not excellent against Kansas State or Iowa State.

So which version of him will we see moving forward? I think the answer to that largely is dependent upon which version of the offensive line we see. If things are fixed up front with Henson’s position group, Cornelius may become more reliable as both a decision-maker and downfield passer. As we saw against the Horns, he’s … pretty good when he has time to throw! Problem is, that hasn’t been the case virtually all season.

If things revert to ugly again with the offensive line, Dru Brown and Spencer Sanders may be viable options as a means of equalizing less optimal OL play via the insertion of a more mobile QB. Both Brown and Sanders are in the twilight of the season, too: With four regular season games left on the schedule and up to four games they can play in before burning their redshirt, they could be inserted at any point with no repercussions on future eligibility. Does that mean Cornelius’s hook be shorter than past weeks moving forward? Will OSU save some special packages for the OUs and West Virginias as a curveball to play alongside Cornelius?

OSU holds several Aces in the pocket. If Cornelius can steady out his play and perform like he did against Texas for the rest of the season, it could allow for OSU to be more creative offensively.

3. Points per play

OSU’s defense against nonconference opponents, as expected, was pretty great/dominant along with OSU’s offense. Both have fallen down the ranks of late, however. Here’s where the offense and defense ranks now in opponents points per play on defense allowed and points per play on offense.

• Points per play allowed: .393 (Rank: 71)
• Points per play allowed over last 3: .521 (Rank: 108)
• Points per play: .489 (Rank: 23)
• Points per play over last 3: .390 (Rank: 60)

I don’t know that any of that means much — if anything — but it is pretty telling to consider that, over the last three games, OSU’s defense is amongst the worst nationally in points per play (108 out of 130) and the definition of average on offense using that same metric.

Maybe, just maybe, Texas was an inflection point and things on the ship will get righted in both categories, but the numbers say right now that OSU is well below average on defense using advanced metrics and average on offense.

S&P+ rankings from Bill Connelly, a predictive/forward-looking metric that compares expected output to actual output, is high on OSU as it ranks the Pokes 22nd nationally overall. That would indicate things are actually not as grim as they appear. I tend to trust S&P+ more.

4. Tylan

I think Saturday we saw what it’s like to watch and root for Alabama in one regard: Tylan Wallace is not your everyday prospect that often lands in Stillwater. He was an upper-level recruit who came to OSU with his twin, Tracin. (And man, how smart was that packaged deal?)

Anyway, Tylan is a legitimate star. 4.3 speedster who leaps out of the gym, makes contested catches look routine, and seems to be just scratching the surface of what he can eventually become. Which is … insane … because he might be a Biletnikoff finalist this season. He’s as electric a playmaker OSU has had since … last season with James Washington.

That’s an embarrassment of riches at receiver. Kasey Dunn might deserve another raise.

5. Final judgement

*sips orange koolaid*

I think OSU could win four of its final four games.

Look, OU is going to be the only one I think OSU will be a double-digit underdog in. Outside of that (and I think OSU can win that, for the record), OSU may be favored against Baylor and TCU, and West Virginia may be a toss-up in the eyes of Vegas.

Its success moving forward is going to depend on two things: OSU’s offensive line development, and the progress of OSU’s young secondary. If Texas is any indication, its blip of success may be more than a blip.