Where Drew Mestemaker Ranks Among Big 12’s Most Explosive Quarterbacks

STILLWATER — Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker should be one of the most impressive deep ball throwers in the Big 12 this fall, and the fact that he isn’t the clear-cut best says a lot about the league.

Mestemaker’s numbers on his deep shots look great on paper, but the first-year Cowboy actually said he felt like he played things a little too safe last year.

“I think I could have taken a few more shots,” Mestemaker said at Big 12 Media Days. “And so I think this spring was really the time for me to like try that out and see what throws I could and couldn’t make.”

To put Mestemaker’s numbers in context, let’s start with the top six Big 12 quarterbacks organized based on their Pro Football Focus grade as a deep passer (20-plus yards downfield).

NOTE: All stats on 20-plus-yard throws unless otherwise specified.

Jaden Craig (TCU)- 95.9 grade as deep passer

Attempts: 76

Accuracy: 42%

Adjusted accuracy (for drops): 51%

Yards per attempt: 15.1

Craig tops all expected Big 12 starters in attempts, accuracy and adjusted completion percentage while finishing top three in yards per attempt.

PFF also singles out big-time throws (BTT) defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window” and turnover-worthy plays.

Craig continues to shine in these more subjective metrics as he was second in both categories among quarterbacks with 20-plus deep attempts last season. His BTT rate was 34% while his turnover-worthy play percentage was only 4%.

The biggest mark against Craig is his lack of power conference experience as he transfers in from Harvard, which on paper represents a much bigger jump than the one Mestemaker will have to make.

Julian Lewis (Colorado)- 93

Attempts: 15

Accuracy: 40%

Adjusted accuracy (for drops): 47%

Yards per attempt: 14.1

Lewis only saw time in four games last season, although it’s worth pointing out three of those opportunities came against Big 12 opponents Arizona, West Virginia and Arizona State. That gives him a slight edge over most of his competition in the top six.

Lewis’ BTT rate of 40% leads the conference, but should be viewed with some skepticism given his lack of deep attempts. Of the 14 quarterbacks included in this story, only Lewis and Texas Tech’s Will Hammond finished with fewer than 40 deep shots last season.

In his small sample size, Lewis avoided making any turnover-worthy plays according to PFF, something that could elevate him and the Buffaloes to the top of the conference if he can stick to that over an entire season. Lewis finished third in completion percentage, and while his other stats didn’t jump off the page, he was well above average across the board.

Noah Fifita (Arizona)- 90.3

Attempts: 61

Accuracy: 36%

Adjusted accuracy (for drops): 39%

Yards per attempt: 11.2

Fifita took 61 deep shots last season, putting him third in the conference, but unlike the two guys ahead of him, he did it all while playing Big 12 football. He’s easily the conference’s most established thrower of the football.

Fifita’s turnover-worthy rate of 1.4% is second only to Lewis with his small sample size. That should be worth a lot considering the defenses he faced, which were substantially more talented than those faced by many of his new peers.

Unlike most of the others on this list, there’s real evidence Fifita has hit a ceiling of sorts. His deep passing grade was exactly the same in 2024.

Drew Mestemaker (OSU)- 88.8

Attempts: 49

Accuracy: 39%

Adjusted accuracy (for drops): 45%

Yards per attempt: 15.5

Some will doubt Mestemaker’s ability to transition to power conference football, but the quarterback’s numbers are incredible to date.

He leads the way, averaging 15.5 yards per deep shot. Mestemaker also ranks third in BTT rate (31%), and his adjusted completion percentage is a blistering 45%, putting him third in the conference behind only Craig and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson among quarterbacks who attempted at least 20 deep shots last season.

The biggest thing you could ding Mestemaker for from a stats standpoint is that 8.6% of his plays were deemed turnover-worthy. That puts him eighth out of 14 quarterbacks examined, but considering he’s completing 2.5% more of his deep shots for what is nearly three extra yards per attempt than the average Big 12 quarterback, I think the Cowboys will happily live with a slightly higher chance of a turnover.

Avery Johnson (Kansas State)- 86.1

Attempts: 47

Accuracy: 40%

Adjusted accuracy (for drops): 49%

Yards per attempt: 14.7

Everything seemed to unravel for Kansas State last season. Johnson’s involvement in that is something of a chicken-egg debate. His nearly 9-point gain in adjusted completion percentage does suggest the quarterback was perhaps the victim of some poor execution by his teammates.

Even without that adjustment, Johnson’s regular completion percentage was good enough to put him second in the conference entering this fall. His yards per attempt are good enough for fourth, as is his BTT rate of 30.6%. Every quarterback remaining on this list has a BTT rate of 24.2% or lower, so there’s a sizable gap here.

Similar to Fifita, Johnson’s stats deserve a bit of a boost considering they came against a schedule filled with power conference foes.

Alonza Barnett (UCF)- 80.5

Attempts: 54

Accuracy: 37

Adjusted accuracy (for drops): 38.9

Yards per attempt: 13.9

Average depth of target doesn’t feel that useful considering all 14 quarterbacks averaged between 29.6 and 31.1 yards per attempt, but Barnett was one of two to hit the high number.

The James Madison transfer also finished third in turnover-worthy plays after recording only 1.7% of such attempts when looking deep. Unlike any other player on this list, Barnett also has experience in the college football playoff.

In the opening round against the Ducks, Barnett completed 4-of-8 deep shots for 111 yards and a touchdown. Those completions are a big reason that lopsided playoff game took forever to truly feel completely out of reach despite Oregon holding a sizable lead throughout.​

There’s a clear gap between the top group and the next eight when it comes to deep attempts.

Although it’s worth noting the conference’s two favorites for the Heisman Trophy, Texas Tech’s Will Hammond and BYU’s Bear Bachmeier are both in the lower grouping. Currently, FanDuel has those guys in a four-way tie for 18th in the Heisman at +5,500 odds.

Bachmeier in particular seems primed for a breakout season after landing the Cougars’ starting job rather late.

Hammond’s adjusted completion percentage of 47.1% puts him third entering the season, and his turnover-worthy play rate (5.6%) has him sixth.

Houston starter Conner Weigman feels like the most proven option of the remaining eight, and his turnover-worthy rate of 4.8% ranks fifth among Big 12 quarterbacks.

It’s worth noting that Arizona State’s Mikey Keene was not included in the top six despite his grade of 82.9 for two reasons. First, he has yet to win the Sun Devils’ job, and second, all of those numbers reflect his 2024 season at Fresno State since he failed to record stats in 2025.

Both Kansas quarterbacks competing for the job remain off the list since they combined for seven total deep attempts last season. Former Sooner Michael Hawkins, now at West Virginia, also wasn’t included because he has few deep attempts in his career.