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10 Thoughts on Oklahoma State’s 38-28 Loss to Baylor

On more woeful run defense, the bowl streak’s imminent end and more.

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1 year ago

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[Devin Wilber/PFB]

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WACO, Texas — It’ll be at least November before the Cowboys win a Big 12 game.

Oklahoma State fell to Baylor 38-28 on Saturday in McLane Stadium. The loss pushed the Pokes down to 0-5 in Big 12 play and 3-5 on the year. Here are 10 thoughts on the game.

1. The Run Defense Was Good … for a Quarter – Then It Was Really Bad

Baylor ran the ball 11 times in the first quarter and gained just 29 yards. That’s 2.6 yards a carry.

Could it be? Did OSU fix its run defense issues somewhere on the journey between Provo and Waco? No. No, the Cowboys did not.

Starting in the second quarter, Baylor ran 27 times for 314 yards (11.6 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. Baylor on Saturday had runs of 48 yards, 39 yards, 24 yards, 41 yards and 55 yards. The Bears finished with 343 rushing yards on nine yards a carry.

Dawson Pendergrass had this ridiculous stat line: six carries for 142 yards and a touchdown. In one drive, he had runs of 48 yards and 39 yards. Then with OSU threatening to get back in the game in the fourth quarter, he squirted free from a pile and ran 55 yards to the house.

It’s a piece to the greater puzzle that is the failure OSU’s run defense has been this season. The past four teams the Cowboys have faced have averaged at least six yards a carry.

Cumulatively, OSU’s past four opponents have ran for 1,287 yards on 7.4 yards a carry. The Cowboys are getting worked.

For reference, OSU’s offense has averaged more than 4.5 yards a carry just once this season.

It’s run fits. It’s tackling. It’s just gross stuff from the OSU defense. And it isn’t getting any better.

2. Penalty Problems

The Cowboys were flagged 12 times on Saturday. That’s the most in a game since the Baylor game in 2018.

“Discipline and Toughness” is a phrase Mike Gundy-led teams have prided themselves on over the years. You could argue this team’s toughness, but it’s evident the discipline was lacking immensely on Saturday.

OSU was flagged three times on its opening drive: two false starts before Alan Bowman had a 16-yard intentional grounding foul that put kicker Logan Ward in a tough spot.

The most egregious of the penalties probably came in the third quarter. OSU had a 3rd-and-1 on Baylor’s seven-yard line and took a delay of game penalty. That’s on Bowman, but it’s also on the coaching staff for not finding a way to get a timeout called in time. The Pokes were unable to convert on 3rd-and-6, leading to another field goal.

Remarkably, Baylor gave up more penalty yards (93) than OSU (84).

This game was so ugly that both teams were flagged for an illegal formation with their respective punt teams. Both teams’ punt returners also got ran into by their own teammates at different points. Sheesh.

3. Baylor Had Two 90-Yard Drives

The Bears had drives of 99 yards and 95 yards. It’s going to be tough to win games when that’s happening.

This sort of melts with OSU’s inability to stop the run. The 99-yard drive featured those two runs for 87 yards from Pendergrass. In total, the drive took just four plays, with the other two being an incompletion and a 12-yard touchdown pass to cap the drive off.

Then early in the fourth quarter, OSU downed a punt on the Baylor 5-yard line. That drive started with a 16-yard run, a nine-yard run and a two-yard run (really stuffed the Bears on that last one) before Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson completed two 17-yard passes with an incompletion between. A few plays later, Robertson dropped back before running basically right down the middle of the field for a 41-yard touchdown.

Big plays have been an issue for this defense all season. One of my thoughts from the South Dakota State game was literally “Big Plays a Concern.” They are still a concern — evident by a four-play, 99-yard drive.

4. Brennan Presley Is Remarkable

Brennan Presley had no business scoring in the manner of which he did in the second quarter.

Presley caught a quick screen pass near the Baylor sideline. Freshman tight end Josh Ford whiffed his block, meaning Presley instantly had a defender on him. Presley wiggled and spun around, leaving the first would-be tackler on the turf. Two more Baylor defenders took poor angles at Presley, who coolly looped around both. Finally, Presley had some forward momentum. He scooted up the Baylor sideline, picking up a downfield block from Cale Cabbiness. The defender Cabbiness was blocking got his hands on Presley about the 6-yard line, but it wasn’t enough, as he hurled himself across the plain. It was perhaps the prettiest of the 22 receiving touchdowns Presley has had in his career to this point.

Presley came into the weekend 27 catches off Rashaun Woods’ program record for receptions in a career. Presley is now just 12 away from tying it after catching 15 of his 17 targets. They were good for 183 yards (the second-most he has had in a game in his career) and the touchdown.

He had another ridiculous catch on a 2-point conversion late in the game … on a ball Ollie Gordon threw. Gordon took the snap, rolled to his right, and Presley kept running around to get open. Gordon ripped a pass toward Presley. It was low, and Presley dived for it. The ball ended up bouncing up off Presley’s hands, but he was able to catch it off his back. It was ridiculous.

Look at this photo:

He’s literally standing on his head.

And on top of his stellar on-field play, he gives incredible quotes like this:

“(Gundy) said there’s a bunch of life lessons you can learn from this,” Presley said. “That’s kind of how I think about it. You’re not having a great season and stuff, but when you’re married, you got a wife, you got kids and stuff — maybe they’re pissing you off. You don’t wanna go home and be the happiest person. Are you just gonna quit on them? Are you gonna quit on all the people that have invested in you? That have been committed to you? Like your teammates, your coaches, the fans and your family. Are you just gonna quit? Or are you gonna put your head down and keep working?

“When you put it in that perspective, this game will one day be taken away. Who’s to say I’ll play the rest of this season? Who’s to say I’ll have a chance to play in the league? Every single day you have to attack it like your last, and you just gotta not think about all the other stuff. All the other stuff will fade, but at end of the day, it’s like who you are as a person, who you are as a man that will take you a long way.”

Watching OSU football hasn’t been a ton of fun this season (for reasons the other thoughts lay out), but watching Presley has been worth sitting through all these stinkers. OSU is going to miss him when he’s gone. Shoutout Josh Stewart, but Presley is the best slot receiver in program history. And I’m not sure it’s close.

5. Alan Bowman Played Alright

Since losing his starting job and having to come back in after Garret Rangel’s injury, Alan Bowman has played alright.

He went 28-for-42 (67%) on Saturday for 359 yards, a touchdown and a late interception. He wasn’t the reason OSU lost Saturday.

After an early incompletion, Bowman completed his next 10 passes, and he, for the most part, put the Cowboys in a position to win the game if the defense had a pulse.

It wasn’t elite quarterback play, but it also wasn’t as poor as some of Bowman’s performances from earlier in the season. It was just alright.

6. But the Run Game Was Back to Struggling

But after the Cowboys had success running the ball in Provo (thanks in large part to Rangel’s legs), the status quo returned in Waco.

OSU ran 34 times for 74 yards (2.2 yards per carry). A trio of sacks certainly hurt that total (Bowman finished with -38 rushing yards), but even if that was neutralized, players not named Alan Bowman ran for 112 yards on 30 carries (3.7 yards per carry).

It’d be tough to ask Bowman, who has already lost his job multiple times this season, to go out and play Superman with run support like that. Gundy reiterated postgame that it comes down to a numbers game. There were more Bears in the box than OSU could block.

Gordon looked better Saturday than he looked in that three-game stretch to start Big 12 play. Gordon was held without a touchdown from the stretch that spanned Tulsa, Utah, Kansas State and West Virginia. He broke through against BYU, scoring two rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown before adding two more touchdowns Saturday to go with 77 rushing yards on 18 carries (4.3 yards per carry). With that being said, it still wasn’t the Gordon the world got introduced to last season.

Rodney Fields Jr. also looked good for it being his second game of college football. The true freshman carried five times for 19 yards (3.8 yards per). He also caught his two targets for another 23 yards.

7. But Is It Maealiuaki Smith Time?

OSU has four (regular season) games left in its 2024 season, meaning players who haven’t played yet could play the rest of the season and still get a redshirt.

The player who most fans will want a better look at heading into next season is freshman quarterback Maealiuaki Smith.

With Zane Flores and Rangel behind Bowman, I never would have thought in a million years (or 100 College Football 25 simulations) that OSU would be in a position to hand the keys to Smith at some point this season. But, with Flores and Rangel out with injuries, this is OSU’s shot at seeing what it has in Smith.

If he isn’t ready, he isn’t ready. But, after watching how Rangel’s legs transformed OSU’s offense last week in Provo, I don’t see how putting Smith out there could hurt things. Bowman is already turning the ball over, which is usually the hesitancy of playing a younger guy. So, why not?

Maybe Smith would play well and OSU could open 2025 with a three-quarterback rotation.

8. Da’Wain Lofton Sort of Pops

On the other side of the great redshirt debate is Da’Wain Lofton.

A wide receiver transfer from Virginia Tech, Lofton battled through an injury at the beginning of the season before making his OSU debut against West Virginia. In the three games he has played in this season, Lofton has caught six passes for 140 yards after he caught his only target Saturday for 56 yards on OSU’s opening drive Saturday.

The issue with Lofton’s late emergence is that he is a senior. But, he has a redshirt available. Having played in three games now, Lofton could play in one more and keep his redshirt. If he plays in two more games, his college career comes to an end.

Lofton is a slot receiver, meaning he could try to help fill the void Presley leaves next season. He should have some help, as it looks as if OU transfer Gavin Freeman will redshirt after he played in the Cowboys’ first four games before sitting out since.

9. The Big 12 Title Game Feels Like Decades Ago?

Just three short years ago, I was watching these two teams play in Arlington for a Big 12 title. The infamous inches short of glory game.

Heck, BYU and UCF (two teams that were Group of Five squads in that 2021 season) were playing on ESPN at the same time that this game was on ESPN+.

Back in 2021, conference realignment started turning its wheels and a thought going into the game was that OSU and/or Baylor was going to take over for OU and Texas as the name brands of the Big 12. And three years later, the Cowboys and Bears were playing with plenty of seats available in a game where the winner would claw back to .500. It all happened so fast.

This game was close throughout, but it never really felt like OSU was in it, which might be a note on Baylor that the Bears weren’t able to come in and put this team hellbent on shooting itself in the foot away sooner.

The Big 12 is fun for its parity, but it could be a lot more fun if both of these teams continued on the trajectory of that 2021 season where they went a combined 24-4 with wins against Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl and Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.

10. The Bowl Streak Feels Doomed

I’ve waited on commenting on the bowl streak until now because I started talking about it after the South Alabama game last season before OSU turned its season around and finished 10-4. Well, after watching the past five games, I feel confident in saying that the 18-year streak is in immense danger.

The Cowboys would need to win three of their final four games to keep the streak alive. Those remaining games are:

vs. Arizona State
at TCU
vs. Texas Tech
at Colorado

Feels like with as solid as Colorado has been this season, there’s one automatic loss.

I’m not very confident in the Pokes’ chances against Arizona State because Sun Devil running back Cam Skattebo is one tough cuss. The Cowboys cannot stop the run whatsoever, so I’d expect Skattebo to be the hammer and OSU to be the nail in that game.

I’m indifferent on TCU and Texas Tech, but at this point, it’s hard to imagine the Pokes beating anybody.

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