Three Reasons the Cowboys Will Win the Big 12, and One Reason They Won’t

It’s an exciting time of the year for Oklahoma State fans for many reasons, not least of which being that everything is still, technically, on the table for the Cowboys. Another double-digit win season, the Big 12 Championship, admission into the expanded 12-team playoff. Even more.

According to Mike Gundy, the Pokes’ top goal every year is to chase down that elusive conference title, and this year they have a team built to do it. Here are three reasons the Cowboys will win their first Big 12 title since 2011 — and one reason they won’t.

Their Big 3 (Positions)

I’m going to lump Ollie Gordon, Alan Bowman and Brennan Presley together here, and by extension the likes of Rashod Owens,  De’Zhaun Stribling and several other #freaks that occupy the receivers room.

Rarely has OSU returned a Big 3 with more potential in the Mike Gundy era. Trios like Weeden-Blackmon-Randle and Rudolph-Washington-Hill come to mind. Aside from them, I’m not sure (on paper) that Gundy has had more to bank on from his Big 3 coming out of fall camp.

Between the best running back in the nation last year, one of the game’s most experienced QBs and his talented group of targets, there’s a lot to be excited about when the Cowboys have the ball. The big question is whether or not they can live up to that potential, and my next point is a big reason I’m confident they can.

An Enviable O-Line

We’ve mentioned it before, but this offensive line has the potential to be one of the best units in the Big 12 and one of the better ones Mike Gundy has had during his tenure. Expect your ESPN and FOX commentators to latch on to this tidbit the first time the Cowboys march down the field on a sustained scoring drive.

But in order to live up to the hype, they’ll need to stay healthy and a stay fresh.

“(Offensive line coach Charlie Dickey is) rolling seven guys in right now,” said Gundy at a recent practice. “We have eight that have played … But really, he’s rolling seven guys in those five spots. We should be (able to play seven to eight offensive linemen in a game). The guys are playing good. (If we) keep guys fresh, then it should give us an opportunity to get guys off the field for a drive or two.”

OSU returns A LOT of depth and experience up front from a group that helped pave the way for the nation’s leading rusher and was one of the better at pass protection in the FBS last year. Earlier in camp, Gundy said he hopes to play eight or nine linemen in Week 1. That will be something to watch for when the Cowboys host South Dakota State.

They’re Tested

These Cowboys have seen it all.

They say there’s no substitute for experience. Fortunately for OSU, the Cowboys are about as experienced as any team in the country. But more than just having reps, this group has been through a lot, and this is the season that they get to pay it off.

A lot of these players have been through COVID, two heartbreaking Big 12 Championship games — one more heartbreaking than the other — and they weathered the tough start last year and were able to salvage a 1o-win season. If the Cowboys do reach their ultimate goal and finally hoist that Big 12 trophy it will be largely because they’ve been there before.

But that leads us to the one reason they won’t …

The Defense Doesn’t Clean up Two Key Issues

I hate to leave things on a negative note, but the headline just sounds snappier this way. But seriously, there is some optimism under the surface on this one, as well.

Okay, this is college football. I could probably come up with about three dozen reasons the Cowboys won’t win the Big 12 championship, chief of which being bit by the injury bug at a number of positions. But casting that aside, the biggest threat I see to Gundy’s team realizing its goal stems from a place where the biggest question mark still lies — its defense.

In Year 1 under Bryan Nardo, the Cowboys took a step back, which was expected. New system, new faces and a lot of turnover, especially in the back end. But this year, the Cowboys return 10 starters on a defense that’s stacked with experience throughout and doesn’t appear to have any weak links.

But experience does not guarantee success, and the glass-half-empty crowd might point out that those are 10 starters played on a defense that got beat a lot and had a tough time getting off the field on third downs.

OSU ranked 11th in the league in third-down defense last year after leading the conference for three years running before that. The Cowboys also ranked dead last in the Big 12 in opponent plays given up of 20-, 30-, 40-, 50- and 60-plus yards. They gave up 215 plays of 10 or more yards which ranked ahead of only New Mexico State’s defense (216), the most in all of college football last year.

The good news is that if the offense lives up to its hype the Pokes don’t necessarily need a 2013/2021-type defense that smothers the rest of the league on the scoreboard. They just need to limit the big plays and get off the field. Whether or not they’ve figured that out will go a long way in determining this team’s ceiling.

All eyes will be on the booth to see how Nardo leads his defense in Year 2. If his defense can continue to gel and improve in those two key areas, it should be plenty stingy to facilitate a successful trip to Arlington, and even more.