Big 12 Update: Sorting Out This Conference Mess

I don’t even know.

With only one week left, there are still technically nine teams that could play for a Big 12 title on Dec. 7 in Arlington. Out of nowhere, though, Arizona State all of a sudden is the Big 12 favorite after taking down BYU on Saturday. The Sun Devils, Cougars, Iowa State and Colorado all have two conference losses at the top of the standings.

Here’s a look at scores from this weekend to get to this point before trying to figure out how things could play out in the end. You can also read all about Oklahoma State’s loss Texas Tech throughout PFB, including the recap here.

Week 13 Scores

Texas Tech 56, Oklahoma State 48
TCU 49, Arizona 28
No. 21 Arizona State 28, No. 14 BYU 23
Kansas 37, No. 16 Colorado 21
West Virginia 31, UCF 21
Baylor 20, Houston 10
No. 22 Iowa State 31, Utah 28
Kansas State 41, Cincinnati 15

Big 12 Standings

Week 14 Big 12 Schedule

Oklahoma State at Colorado — 11 a.m. Friday on ABC
Utah at UCF — 7 p.m. Friday on FOX
West Virginia at Texas Tech — 11 a.m. Saturday on FS1
Kansas at Baylor — 11 a.m. Saturday on ESPN2
Arizona State at Arizona — 2:30 p.m. Saturday on FOX
TCU at Cincinnati — 5 p.m. Saturday on ESPN+
Kansas State at Iowa State — 6:30 p.m. Saturday on FOX
Houston at BYU — 9:15 p.m. Saturday on ESPN

Big 12 Championship Scenarios

Unfortunately, none of the top four 6-2 teams play each other, so there’s a good chance they all win their regular-season finale and create a four-way tie at 7-2. In a release, the Big 12 said if all four teams win Week 14, then it will be ASU and ISU in the Big 12 Championship Game. If either of those two lose, though, is when it gets weird.

If only one of those four teams loses then there are lots of possible options. A Colorado loss would again pit the Sun Devils and Cyclones against each other. If ASU is upset by Arizona, though, it’ll be ISU vs. BYU. ISU and ASU just swap if the other loses, meaning if the Cyclones lose to K-State, ASU will play BYU.

But if BYU loses and causes a three-team tie, then other Big 12 games will become a factor. If BYU loses while Texas Tech beats West Virginia and Cincinnati beats TCU, then the Big 12 championship will be Colorado vs. ISU. But if BYU loses and WVU beats Tech, then it’d be ASU playing Colorado.

To get weirder, there are also five 5-3 teams that are still alive. They all must win while also having at least three of the 6-2 teams lose. And if that happens, I’ll just leave it to the experts to tell me who’s playing on Dec. 7 in Arlington.

But as fun as all this chaos seems, it might actually hurt the Big 12 more than help.

A team winning the Big 12 title still doesn’t guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoff, though, especially for a three-loss Colorado team. Technically, the top five highest-ranked conference champions get in, and we have just assumed that would be from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and one Group of 5 conference. Obviously at this point, the SEC, Big Ten and ACC representative will be ranked higher than a Big 12 champ. If Boise State and Tulane remain undefeated and win the Mountain West and AAC, respectively, both could be ranked higher than a three-loss Colorado, and maybe even a different Big 12 champion, thus both getting in over a Big 12 team and leaving the conference at home. Just brace yourself if you’re a Big 12 enthusiast

Right now, ASU is the highest-ranked Big 12 team at No. 14 and should climb when the new rankings are released. The Sun Devils are below Boise State, but at least ahead of AAC contenders Tulane and Army, as well as the MWC’s UNLV. ISU is one spot ahead of Tulane as of writing at No. 17, while BYU is a slot below but will drop even more after losing to ASU on Saturday. So, best-case scenario for the Big 12 brand, all four teams win out, then the winner of ASU and ISU should be comfortably in with a conference championship. BYU or Colorado could put the Big 12’s CFP chances in danger, though, depending on how the AAC and Mountain West shakes out.