Three Things to Know Before Oklahoma State Hosts Kansas State

It’s early, but the Cowboys are already learning just how tough the Big 12 can be.

Just two games into their conference slate and the Pokes are 0-2. On Tuesday, they host a Wildcat team that already has its first league win but is, by the numbers, maybe one of the more winnable games left on OSU’s schedule.

Let’s take a look at Tuesday night’s matchup and three things that stuck to me.

By the Numbers, a Must-Win

That’s a bit hyperbolic. There probably aren’t any actual must-wins the first week of January, but based on where the Cowboys are at and how tough the league is, this might be close.

The Wildcats are the consensus favorites according to Vegas, but according to KenPom’s win predictions (based on cumulative probabilities fueled by the site’s own advanced stats), this is one of just four games the Cowboys are predicted to win the rest of the way.

By this metric, the Cowboys are given a 52% chance to win Tuesday night. The other Ws currently projected are the home game vs. Colorado on Jan. 18 (53%), the home game against Utah on Feb. 1 (53%) and then UCF at home Feb. 19 (50%).

Those numbers mean little when you consider a wide range of factors like injuries, momentum and a team gelling as the season goes on (especially a retooled roster under a new coach, as in OSU’s case), but it does paint the picture of just where the Cowboys sit in the league’s pecking order, and how difficult things are likely to be the rest of the way. All that to say, the Cowboys should really try to get this one.

Good Shooting, By Attrition?

So far in Big 12 play, the Cowboys look like they’d have a hard enough time hitting the east side of GIA, much less the bottom of the net, but there’s hope that they can get right in the shooting department.

Entering league play, the Cowboys were shooting 44% from the field and averaging 78.9 points per game. Over their first two conference games they’ve shot just 29.6% and scored 48.5 per outing. This dip is no doubt at least partly due to a big step up in competition — Houston and WVU rank first and second, respectively, in opponent field goal percentage — but if you watched the games, you saw a lot of OSU attempts that simply bounced off the back of the rim — a frustrating number of missed bunnies.

Conversely, the Cowboys and Wildcats hold the distinction of being the two worst Big 12 teams in terms of opponent field-goal percentage with the Cats (43.3%) just ahead of the last-place Pokes (45.7%). Granted, they do, unfortunately rank 12th and 15th in team shooting.

Whether or not it’s chicken soup for the poor-shooting soul, or just a reprieve from the dominant defenses they started out against, the Cowboys should have an easier time getting buckets. We’ll see if they take advantage.

Steals = Good, Easy Buckets = Better

Through the start of Big 12 play, the Cowboys have kept up their pilfering ways, they’ve just not been able to capitalize on those steals.

OSU currently ranks third in the league (and 39th nationally) averaging 9.2 steals per game. One of the biggest differences between OSU’s noncon success and its in-conference struggles is that in the games against Houston and WVU they only combined scored 19 points off of 31 forced turnovers. The Cowboys managed just 17 total fastbreak points in those two games.

If the Cowboys play to their strengths, they need to remain active in passing lanes but then figure out a way to convert those steals into easy points. Fortunately, the Wildcats could help in that regard, as well. K-State ranks 14th out of 16 Big 12 teams in turnover margin.

The Cowboys host the Wildcats Tuesday night. Tipoff is 7 p.m. CST in Gallagher-Iba Area.