We Simulated OSU’s 2025 Season 100 Times on College Football 26, Here Is What Happened

The college football video game is in its second year back, and for the second time in as many years, we simulated Oklahoma State’s upcoming season 100 times to see if it tells us anything about the future.

Last year, it didn’t. Only one of our 100 sims from last season had the Cowboys going 3-9 like the real-life Pokes did, but on average the game predicted OSU to finish with about nine wins.

All that is to say is that this is about as unserious as 100 simulations can be, but here is a general look at how College Football 26 sees Oklahoma State’s season playing out.

These simulations were done with the game’s default roster and depth charts.

The Games

Here is a look at the percentage the Cowboys beat each of their 2025 opponents in our sims:

FCS Southeast (UT-Martin isn’t in the game): 97%
at Oregon: 4%
Tulsa: 68%
Baylor: 17%
at Arizona: 37%
Houston: 40%
Cincinnati: 39%
at Texas Tech: 10%
at Kansas: 26%
Kansas State: 19%
at UCF: 38%
Iowa State: 14%

Takeaways:

• This is a stark contrast from last year’s sims. A year ago, the game gave OSU a 60% or better chance in eight games and above a 50% chance in 10 games. That’s obviously not how the real-life season went, so perhaps the this will work in favor of the Pokes in 2025.

• There are three incredibly dark timelines that have the Cowboys losing to an FCS team. For what it’s worth (which shouldn’t be much), OSU won 100% of its FCS games in last year’s sims.

• There are, though, four timelines that see the Cowboys going to Eugene, Oregon in Week 2 and beating the Ducks. Could you imagine? One of those timelines (Sim 25) had OSU recreating last season, winning their opening three games before nine straight losses. It would be quite strange to see OSU go to Oregon and win just to not be able to beat any Big 12 teams.

• The Big 12 contest the game gives OSU the best chance of winning is the Cowboys’ Oct. 11 matchup against Houston with that, Arizona, Cincinnati and UCF all hovering around the same percentage. I was sort of surprised to see at UCF on that list solely because of how the Cowboys’ last trip to Orlando went — a 45-3 defeat in a monsoon.

• The worst chance the game give the Cowboys to win in the Big 12 is their Oct. 25 contest in Lubbock against Texas Tech, which will make even more sense as we continue our exercise.

Record

Here are looks at the highs and lows for the Cowboys through our simulations:

Average total record: 4.15-8
Best Timeline: Sim 66 — 8-5
Darkest Timeline: Sim 30 — 1-11

Takeaways:

• The Cowboys finished with six or more wins 18 times during our simulations. That’s usually enough to make a team bowl eligible, but there were three instances where OSU eclipsed that mark but the videogame didn’t put the Pokes in a bowl, including a year where OSU won seven games. Odd.

• The Alamo Bowl was the most common bowl the videogame placed OSU in, happening six times. OSU was also featured in the Bahamas, Liberty, Rate, Frisco, New Mexico and Citrus bowls throughout the experiment.

• Through the 100 sims, OSU won three games more than any other number, going 3-9 on 26 occasions. The Cowboys won four games in 24 sims and five games in 20. So, the game gives OSU a 70% chance to fall somewhere between three and five wins. It gives OSU an 18% chance to finish with six to eight wins and a 12% chance to finish with one or two wins.

Big 12 Titles

Here is the number of Big 12 titles each team won during our simulations.:

Texas Tech — 44
Baylor — 15
BYU — 11
Kansas State — 10
Arizona State — 8
Colorado — 5
Iowa State — 2
Utah — 2
West Virginia — 2
Kansas — 1
Arizona — 0
UCF — 0
Cincinnati — 0
Houston — 0
Oklahoma State — 0
TCU — 0

• The game sees Texas Tech as an overwhelming favorite to win the Big 12. When we did this experiment last year, Utah had the most Big 12 titles through the 100 sims with 32. That 44% chance the game gives Tech to win the Big 12 title is as much as the next four schools combined.

• The school that probably surprised me most on this list was Colorado because of all the turnover the Buffaloes are going through, but Prime’s teams will always be quite talented.

• Could you imagine the number of burnt couches if Rich Rodriguez leads the Mountaineers to a Big 12 title in his first season back with the program?