Caleb Hawkins Can Chase Nation’s Best Even If He Slows Down Against Big 12 Competition

STILLWATER — When it comes to the former North Texas stars, the case for regression is somewhat straightforward.

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young all finished top five at their respective positions in yardage.

Although that trio should benefit from another year on the field together, plus what seems like a better supporting cast, they also have to face tougher competition on a weekly basis.

Mestemaker can afford to take a somewhat expected step back and still light the country on fire with his arm.​

As a running back, predicting Hawkins’ production is less straightforward.

He finished fifth in the nation in rushing yards with 1,434 while averaging 6.2 yards per carry.

Nine running backs, including former Cowboy Ollie Gordon, returned and carried the ball at least 100 times following a top 10 season in either 2023 or 2024.

Three of them gained roughly 8% more rushing yards, while the other six combined to lose 31% of their production.

Note: bold stats mark percentages that improved.

Unlike the quarterbacks, the data is a bit scattered here. Hawkins’ rushing total last season would have ranked 16th in school history in total rushing yards and just outside the top 10 in yards per rush.

Even with a 31% drop-off, which feels like close to a worst-case scenario without factoring in missed games, Hawkins would still rush for 990 yards this fall. And if he can achieve even a 5% increase, then he’d finish 14th all-time with 1,506 rushing yards.

Oklahoma State’s history of success on the ground skews the context for these numbers a bit, as 990 yards would have ranked 38th among backs nationally last season and fourth among the Big 12.

So many different factors impact total rushing yards, such as games played and workload splits, to name two.

Yards per carry should be a more stable stat, and that is proven true by the nine running backs examined here. Three hit the same mark exactly, while two increased their yards per carry, in one case thanks to a dramatically reduced workload in terms of rush attempts per game.

Altogether, the nine backs changed their yards per carry numbers by 9% on average. For Hawkins, that would put him somewhere between 5.6 and 6.8 yards per carry. Even the low number would have ranked 34th at the position last season and sixth within the Big 12, but the back was vocal at Big 12 Media Days that he’s determined to show off his improved speed this fall while maintaining his strength.

Hawkins would need to average 6.5 to put himself in the program’s top five, while rounding up to 6.8 would put him third all-time, as Oklahoma State just has so many good backs.