How Likely Is It That Oklahoma State Runs the Table?

We have already talked about the index ESPN created called FPI in previous months, but here is a refresher in case you missed that.

FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

In short, if preseason FPI had been used with no update to predict every game of the 2014 season, the FPI favorite would have won 71 percent of FBS versus FBS games (Vegas closing line was 74 percent accurate).

So think of FPI as an indicator of sorts that shows which teams will be favored throughout the year (based on where they stand right now). OSU has moved up to No. 8 in ESPN’s preseason FPI behind just Alabama, Clemson, OU, LSU, Florida State, Tennessee and Ole Miss.

Why?

It returns a lot of starters and has a lot of depth on both sides of the ball. It also has a relatively easy schedule compared to the other top-ranked teams. Because of all this, OSU’s chances of winning its first 11 games are actually pretty good. Here’s a look at where FPI stands as we speak on August 11.

Tasty, isn’t it? Here’s how that compares to OKC Dave’s survey results of how confident fans are in those games.

OSU fans are awfully scared of Iowa State, Kansas State and TCU compared to where ESPN stands. And finally here is OU’s FPI schedule.

None of this means anything of course (ALTHOUGH OU’S CHANCES OF 81 PERCENT OVER OHIO STATE SEEM MIGHTY HIGH), but it sure is fun to look at. And anything that gets me more excited about OSU’s chances for the football season on August 11 is a welcome reprieve.