Preview: Oregon

Photo Attribution: USATSI

Vitals

Tip: 3:40 PM CDT
Location: San Jose, CA
TV: TNT
Online Stream: here
Announcers: Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner, and Marty Snider
Line: Pokes -2

Records

Cowboys – 24-8 (13-5)
Ducks 26-8 (12-6)

Best win

Cowboys – Kansas (KenPom: #7)
Ducks – Arizona (KenPom: #21)

Worst loss

Cowboys – Virginia Tech (KenPom: #166)
Ducks – Utah (KenPom: #119)

KenPom rank

Cowboys – #18
Ducks – #43

Data nerds

[table id=107 /]

Adj. efficiency – Points per 100 possessions (adjusted for quality of opponent and site of game).
Adj. tempo – Possessions per game (adjusted for schedule and pace of other team).
Effective FG % – Takes into account extra value of 3s.

Three things to watch

1. Big fella stoppage – Oregon’s big men are fantastic. That means OSU is probably going to get out-rebounded. If those are all defensive rebounds then fine, whatever. But if Oregon can start stacking up offensive rebounds…look out.

2. Similarities are scary – Remember two weeks ago when I said I wanted to see a team very similar to OSU? Well, we got that. Great on defense and not very good on offense. Now OSU has to capitalize by completely taking away a very average scoring effort from Oregon.

Consider: Oregon has had six games this year with fewer than 10 assists. It has lost five of those. Sounds a lot like another offense we’ve watched all year, doesn’t it? Keep the Ducks from flying away in transition and we should be good.

3. Hero ball? – The only thing that worries me a little bit about this game is that I’ve seen a lot of hero ball out of #33 lately. Part of that is a function of the fact that nobody moves on offense and part is just…well, that’s the part that worries me.

Last time

OSU played an NCAA Tournament game was 1,098 days ago. Wow.

Prediction

Porter: Good guys – 71-65
KenPom: Oklahoma State – 68-64