A Look at the Ceiling and the Floor for Oklahoma State Basketball in 2017

Oklahoma State hoops goes as Jeffrey Carroll goes.

Carroll is going to get selected in the NBA Draft next year. He will put up 20+ every night and be the vocal leader for the Cowboys. But the options behind him remain up in the air.

OSU was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll by Big 12 coaches, but that has about as much value as Sports Illustrated, in 2014, picking the Houston Astros to win the 2017 World Series. Well, maybe even less than that. So it’s hard to determine what to make of the Cowboys this year, but a good place to start is looking at the best and worst realistic outcomes for the coming season, which tips off Friday night in an exhibition game at 7 p.m. in GIA.

Floor

The returners on the roster this season scrounged up 53.6 points per game in 2016.

OSU lost three of its top four scorers from 2016, including NBA draftee Jawun Evans and legend Phil Forte. Two transfers were brought in to help try to lessen the blow of their departures, but Michael Weather of Miami (Ohio) will redshirt, and it’s hard to know what to expect from Kendall Smith, who played at California State Northridge last season.

Outside of them, it might be tough to find points, especially if Mike Boynton’s offense remains a mystery as it has to this point, just a week away from a regular season game.

Mitchell Solomon is who he is — a five point per night guy. Lindy Waters will absolutely have to learn to drive to the basket. Davon Dillard is hurt and won’t be back likely until weeks into the regular season just before Big 12 play starts. Brandon Averette is a defensive guard. And if all goes poorly, teams will start to double Carroll — as they probably should.

Worst-case scenario: OSU finishes 10th in Big 12, misses tournament (badly)

Ceiling

Winning the conference seems unrealistic enough to rule that out, but Carroll is good enough to score 25 a night.

Jawun put up 19.2 on average, and he was a point guard with options. Carroll is an assassin of a wing player. If Smith comes in and adds 10 a night and can distribute efficiently to the wings, which are definitely OSU’s strength this season, the offense could be solid enough to sniff the top of the Big 12.

Cam McGriff should progress after a solid freshman season, and who knows, maybe freshman Zack Dawson is the new Carroll.

Boynton might have the next big offensive scheme planned for Pepperdine on Nov. 10, though it’s unlikely. But he seems capable enough to help guide the ship. It seems he has done a solid job of delegating power, including to Carroll and Solomon, who were both at Big 12 Media Day with him, but his in-game adjustments will be key. Again, if that gets ironed out, a mid-table finish is not out of the question.

Add in the shooting of Waters and Thomas Dziagwa and a few key road wins at TCU and in Norman or Waco, and the Cowboys might even finish a little higher in what seems like a transitional year in the Big 12. This team likely has a wider variance in floor and ceiling than any in recent memory.

Best-case scenario: OSU finishes third, makes the NCAA Tournament as a No. 7 seed