A Look at Offensive and Defensive PPD Numbers Throughout the Years at OSU

There has been much said and written about Mike Yurcich and Glenn Spencer when it comes to production in Stillwater. And there are innumerable ways to evaluate the jobs that they are doing.

My favorite, of course, is points per drive. How many times did you get the rock, and how often did you score when you got it? Oklahoma State hit unprecedented numbers in 2017 (#FireYurcich) and currently sits as the No. 2 offense in the country behind OU.

The Pokes averaged 3.5 points per drive for the season with end-of-half possessions and garbage time taken out. That’s their highest mark since BCF Toys started keeping track, but it remains to be seen whether they can hang on to it against a tough Virginia Tech defense in the Camping World Bowl.

It also represents the culmination of three years of growth. Yurcich arrived on the scene in 2013 when he helped guide J.W. Walsh and Clint Chelf to within a Justin Gilbert interception of a conference championship. That offense fell off the map in 2014 but has rebounded every year since then.

Here’s a look at OSU’s offensive numbers compared to the NCAA median from 2007-2017.

These numbers are about what you would expect, I suppose. Those 2009 and 2014 seasons are ghastly. It’s one of the bigger miracles of the Gundy era that Oklahoma State went to the Cotton Bowl in 2009.

Now, the defense. Obviously for this chart being under the NCAA median is better. OSU has achieved that in three of Glenn Spencer’s five years at the helm, including each of the last two (barely).

Here’s a look.

What if you paired that 2013 defense with the 2017 offense?

Remember when I wrote that we should be careful what we wish for after Oklahoma State canned Bill Young in 2012 but then I got made fun of (and rightfully so) in 2013 when OSU had its best defense in school history? I guess I can jump back on the careful what you wish for train.

All four of Bill Young’s defenses from 2009-12 have been better than all four of Glenn Spencer’s from 2014-2017. The only outlier, that was better than all of them, was Spencer’s in 2013.

So this paints an interesting picture and one we can take in 2018. If Glenn Spencer gets fired — a big if at this point — it’s easy to see why. He’s been hovering around average nationally for four years. It’s really difficult to win titles like that, even with historically-great offenses. He’s also been far inferior from a statistical perspective to his predecessor. That’s usually a recipe for change, although it remains to be seen when it comes to Spencer.

As for Yurcich, my favorite argument I’ve seen about him is “wait until he doesn’t have any talent, then he’ll stink!” Well …….. yeah. I’d like to see the long list of coordinators who are elite at their jobs without any talent. All coaches are buoyed by their talent. That’s sort of lesson No. 1 of the job. Bill Belichick couldn’t coach Kansas to a .500 record. But part of your job as a coach is getting talent, which Yurcich and the other assistants have done.

There will be a drop in production in 2018 offensively, to be sure. But it will be interesting to see how far OSU falls. With a glut of skill position players a lot will depend on who QB1 is. One thing is for sure, though. Unless OSU’s defense improves, you can expect an overall drop in production because that historically-great offense will be gone after one more game.