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A Look at the Success and Struggles of Third-Round Quarterbacks in the NFL

Published

6 years ago

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It’s every player’s dream to hear their name called first on the day of the NFL Draft. This honor is typically reserved for a quarterback. That dream came to fruition for Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, but his Bedlam rival, Mason Rudolph, had to wait another day before the Pittsburgh Steelers selected him with the 76th pick in the third round.

Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round, including four in the top 10 picks. Rudolph was the next quarterback selected. Quarterbacks taken in the first round, for the most part, eventually become the starter down the road. There are obviously busts in every draft, but you don’t invest a first-round pick in a player if you don’t believe they can help lead your franchise one day.

All that said, that doesn’t mean Rudolph won’t be expected to lead the Steelers eventually. He has a couple of seasons to learn before Ben Roethlisberger retires.

No player is guaranteed a good career; not even players selected first overall are a sure bet to succeed at the first level. However, the further down the draft you fall, the lower the expectations are during the course of your career. In this post, I’m going to take a look at quarterbacks selected in the third round during the past 20 years. Could Rudolph be like Russell Wilson and win a Super Bowl? Or will he be like Ryan Mallet and never be a starter for a full season?

There have been 27 quarterbacks selected in the third round in the past 20 years, and most of them weren’t successful in the NFL. By my standards, only one developed into a star, while four were better than average and had good careers. Thirteen had unmemorable careers, and the other nine fall somewhere in between. I divided the picks into five separate tiers. If history is any indication, Rudolph is going to have to beat the odds to be successful in the NFL.

Star (1)

Russell Wilson – 2012, 75th Overall – Wisconsin

Wilson wasn’t expected to be the starter coming in; that honor was reserved for expensive free agent Matt Flynn. However, Wilson performed so well in the offseason, it was irrational to keep him off the field. Wilson has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks since he entered the league and has a Super Bowl ring to show for it.

Above-Average Starter (3)
Nick Foles – 2012, 88th Overall – Arizona

It’s tough to get a good grade on Foles, but after this past season, how can you not put him in the “Above-Average Starters” category? The dude led his team to a Super Bowl victory against the Patriots. He has a bunch of mediocre seasons sandwiched between his stellar 2013 season (27 touchdowns and two interceptions) and this Super Bowl run. Who knows what will happen with Foles going forward? Nobody. But he could most definitely start for a handful of NFL teams and perform at a high level. He has proven that.

Matt Schaub – 2004, 90th Overall – Virginia

Schaub made the most of his situation, starting 92 games throughout his 13-year career. He was a two-time Pro Bowler, and he led the NFL with 4,770 yards in 2009. He completed more than 70 percent of his passes during the Texans’ two-game playoff run in 2012 and is likely regarded as the best quarterback in Texans history.

Josh McCown – 2002, 81st Overall – Sam Houston State

McCown’s record as a starter (23-50) might not be impressive, but that’s because he has never been on a good team. Instead, he has spent his entire career providing stability for suffering franchises, and he will compete for the Jets’ starting job as the season approaches. He’s a 15-year veteran with 97 touchdowns and 78 interceptions. He has completed more than 60 percent of his passes and has thrown double-digit touchdowns in six different seasons.

Average Starter (4)

Jacoby Brissett – 2016, 91st Overall – NC State

Brissett has a 5-12 record as a starter, but 15 of those starts came with an absolutely awful Colts roster. Brissett has a total of 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s about to enter his third year in the NFL and will likely be the starter in Indianapolis until Andrew Luck is 100 percent healthy. At the very least, Brissett is a high-quality backup.

Mike Glennon – 2013, 73rd Overall -NC State

Although he doesn’t have a winning record, Glennon has been a reliable starter throughout his career. He has 34 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, has a career completion percentage of 60.6 percent and has thrown an interception on only 2.6 percent of his passes.

Trent Edwards – 2007, 92nd Overall – Stanford

Edwards played six seasons in the NFL, and his first three were his most active. He started 30 games in that span, going 14-16 with the Bills. He has a career completion percentage of 60.6 and threw 26 touchdowns and 30 interceptions.

Brian Griese – 1998, 91st Overall – Michigan

Griese was a solid starter during the majority of his career, as he won 45 of his 83 starts. He was named to 2000’s Pro Bowl team and had five seasons with more than 2,500 passing yards. He wasn’t excellent by any measurement, but his solid play kept him in the NFL for 11 seasons.

Average Backup (6)

Cody Kessler – 2016, 93rd Overall – USC

Kessler has played in 12 games, including eight starts, during the course of his early career. However, he would not have started anywhere else in the NFL; the Browns are just that bad. Kessler has been manageable during his stint, though. Although he has an 0-8 record as a starter, he has twice as many touchdowns as interceptions and completes nearly 64 percent of his passes.

Colt McCoy – 2010, 85th Overall – Texas

Another quarterback who started with the Browns, McCoy has been a serviceable backup throughout his career. He has completed about 60 percent of his passes to go along with 26 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He was never great as a starter but is a decent backup. There’s not much else to McCoy, who was an absolute legend for the Longhorns.

Brodie Croyle – 2006, 85th Overall – Alabama

Croyle spent five years in the big leagues, all of which playing for the Kansas City Chiefs. He went 0-10 as a starter, but his numbers weren’t terrible. That being said, his career was nothing special.

Charlie Whitehurst – 2006, 81st Overall – Clemson

Whitehurst, aka Clipboard Jesus, started only nine games in as many seasons in the NFL. He threw 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions and went 2-9 as a starter. True to his nickname, he spent most of his career holding a clipboard.

Chris Simms – 2003, 97th Overall – Texas

Simms had a decent 7-9 record as a starter. His best season came in 2005, when he went 6-4 for the Buccaneers, throwing 10 touchdowns and seven picks. His career went downhill following that season, as he served the remainder of his time in the NFL as a backup, throwing one touchdown and eight interceptions in his final three seasons.

Chris Redman – 2000, 75th Overall – Louisville

Redman started 12 games in eight years, but all 12 of those starts came in a four-year span. He went 4-8 as a starter and completed 57.2 percent of his passes to go along with 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

Below-Average Backup (13)

Davis Webb – 2017, 87th Overall – California

Webb hasn’t played a snap in the NFL yet. He was OK at Texas Tech for three years, but an excellent season at California improved his draft stock.

C.J. Beathard – 2017, 104th Overall – Iowa

Beathard played in seven games, starting five for San Fransisco last season. He wasn’t great, as he threw four touchdowns and six interceptions. The 49ers were 1-4 in games he started.

Garrett Grayson – 2015, 75th Overall –  Colorado State

Grayson has bounced from the Saints to the Falcons but has yet to see an NFL snap.

Sean Mannion – 2015, 89th Overall – Oregon State

Mannion has been in the league for three years but only has one start to his name. He has no touchdowns and one interception.

Ryan Mallett – 2011, 74th Overall – Arkansas

The Patriots drafted Mallett hoping to get some solid backup quarterback play, but he never impressed against backups during the preseason and is wildly inaccurate. He has never completed 60 percent of his passes in a season and has thrown more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (9).

Kevin O’Connell – 2008, 94th Overall – San Diego State

O’Connell attempted only six passes in his career. The Patriots drafted then released O’Connell, who didn’t get another opportunity after he suffered a shoulder injury.

Charlie Frye – 2005, 67th Overall – Akron

It’s amazing Frye’s career lasted as long as it did when you consider how awful his stats are. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns in all five of his seasons (except for 2008, when he threw two of each). He completed a decent number of his passes, but far too many of them landed in his opponents’ gloves.

Andrew Walter – 2006, 69th Overall – Arizona State

Walter started eight games as a rookie, but he quickly revealed his accuracy issues, as he threw 13 interceptions compared to just three touchdowns during his first season. He completed a paltry 52.3 percent of his passes and wasn’t trusted to start many games after that rough stretch as a rookie.

David Greene – 2006, 85th Overall – Georgia

Greene never played in a regular-season game.

Dave Ragone – 2003, 88th Overall – Texans

Ragone never did much in the NFL, as he played only one season. He played in only two games, both starts, throwing no touchdowns and one interception.

Giovanni Carmazzi – 2000, 65th Overall – Hofstra

Carmazzi never played in a regular-season game.

Brock Huard – 1999, 77th Overall – Washington

Huard’s career was short-lived; it lasted only three seasons. His time in the NFL isn’t long enough to be considered anything but below average.

Jonathan Quinn – 1998, 86th Overall – Middle Tennessee State

Quinn completed only 52.5 percent of his career passes and was 1-5 as a starter. He threw four touchdowns and seven interceptions and wasn’t a factor for the Jaguars, Chiefs or Bears.

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