A Super-Conference Poacher’s Guide to the Big 12

With Oklahoma and Texas, the Big 12’s bell cows, both set on grazing in greener SEC pastures at some point in the near future, we’re left with one huge question. What’s to become of the rest of the herd?

There have been several scenarios floated out there like the league replacing its bluebloods with off-brands and attempting to proceed as the Big 12. This seems neither likely nor feasible long-term to me. And there’s even the prospect of merging with another conference, like Kyle Boone put forward.

Personally, I think the writing is on the wall — in crimson and burnt-orange ink. The future could very well bring us a college football ruled by four 16-team super-conferences.

It’s a theory that’s been shared across the interwebs since the inception of the playoff, probably even longer, but one that got a shot in the arm this week.

All of this got me thinking. If other leagues were to come to flyover country looking to scoop up member schools in a conference arms race, which would be the most desirable?

Here’s my poachability (not a word) ranking for each of the other Big 12 schools.

A disclaimer: There are plenty of ways to assign value to a school including overall athletic excellence, revenue and viewership and academics. But this is largely a football-centric ranking and, most notably, for fun.

1. Oklahoma State

This might come off as biased, but I kept coming back to the consistency built by Mike Gundy during his tenure. But as much success as is tied directly to a head coach, I think what Gundy has built at least has the potential to continue after he’s gone, given the right hire.

And let’s not forget that Mike Boynton is building a winner in the other revenue sport.

Overall, OSU is competitive athletically across the board, has the facilities to match most schools in the country and a solid recruiting foothold in the football (and hoops) talent mine that is Texas.

2. Iowa State

As long as the Cyclones keep Matt Campbell and remain on their current trajectory, it’s a good pick for any of these leagues. If you drop next year’s Iowa State squad into the ACC, Pac-12 or Big Ten, I think its ceiling is a conference title game or more. I might pick the ‘Clones to win the Pac-12 this fall.

Campbell has turned down offers to leave in the past

3. Baylor

Despite a down year that can at least partially be attributed to a coaching change and an especially heavy dose of COVID impact, Baylor could be a sleeper contender in the Big 12 this fall.

Dave Aranda hasn’t even gotten a chance to show how well he can lead a program, but he is recruiting well, especially considering last year’s 2-7 finish.

4. Kansas State

It might be easy to discount the Wildcats after a 4-6 finish in 2020, but even if you toss out the pandemic caveat injury played a part in K-State’s drop-off after Chris Klieman’s 8-5 Big 12 debut.

The Cats return their 12th fifth-year QB Skylar Thompson and look ready to make hay in the Big 12, at least as it looks in 2021.

5. Kansas

Hear me out! It’s Kansas in football, but it’s also Kansas in basketball. I said this was “mostly” a football ranking but you can’t ignore a bonafide collge basketball blueblood with tradition, academics and everything else that Lawrence has to offer.

I just can’t see a scenario in which a brand like KU is left on the outside, should this become a liquidation sale. Kansas has already set up talks with the Big Ten, apparently.

6. Texas Tech

With all the flashy helmets and haircuts, the Red Raiders haven’t turned in a winning season in six years, spanning two coaching regimes. Even offensive maven Kliff Kingsbury, now of NFL head coaching ilk, only mustered an above-.500 finish twice during his six-year tenure in Lubbock. Tech hasn’t won a bowl game since 2013.

7. TCU

Gary Patterson, like Gundy, is an historic coach that has elevated his program to new heights. Although his team has surpassed sevens just once in the last five years.

Unlike Gundy, if Patterson stepped away from his post tomorrow, I don’t think the school in Ft. Worth has the same type of brand recognition or staying power as the one in Stillwater.

8. West Virginia

West Virginia lost a consistent winner in Dana Holgorsen three years ago, as well as a lot of departing talent, and it feels like they could be a program left on the outside. Neal Brown showed modest improvement in Year 2, following a 5-7 season with a 6-4 shortened slate and a bowl win.

Long-term, the Mountaineers look like a middling team in any conference, Big 12 or otherwise. They’d probably get scooped up by the ACC based on location.