Against the Spread: History Favors OSU in Texas Showdown

According to odds from Vegas Insider, Oklahoma State opened as a 7-point favorite over Texas on Saturday. And if betting history between these two teams tells us anything, this line should bode well for OSU.

Texas is 0-5 all time as an underdog against the Pokes, and in those contests the Horns have covered the spread only once. (Maybe more amazing is that Texas has only been an underdog 5 times against OSU.)

Let’s take a look at how each team has fared this season to get a better picture of how this weekend might shape up.

Against The Spread In 2017

• OSU: 4-2 — OSU fell short of covering against TCU and Tech, but got back on track Saturday by winning 59-16 and obliterating the 25.5 point line it was favored by over Baylor.

• Texas: 3-3 — The Horns’ biggest win against the spread came against San Jose State in Week 2. As far as failing to cover, they’ve done so twice — both coming by 10 points.

Advice: I would stay away from this game, but if you must, take Texas to cover if QB Sam Ehlinger is healthy. He gives them a dimension on offense Shane Buechele simply cannot.

Straight Up In 2017

• OSU: 5-1 — OSU won big this weekend and improved to 5-1 on the season, including a 2-1 conference record.

• Texas: 3-3 — Texas has been up and down under Tom Herman but has seemingly found its groove after turning to true freshman Sam Ehlinger at QB. Its worst loss was against Maryland, and best win was an OT thriller over K-State.

Advice: Roll Pokes in a close one.

Over/Under

• OSU: The Pokes have hit the over line four times in six contests. I expect it will be more of the same this weekend.

• Texas: All but two of its games have fell on the under side, due to the Horns defense which held a prolific OU offense to 29 points this weekend.

Advice: Take the under. OSU had trouble with TCU, one of the better defenses in the league. And I think Texas has a better squad from top to bottom.

Bonus Picks

I’m not saying I’m a wizard, but I was 2-1 in bonus picks last week with sage advice to take both Syracuse and Texas to cover. You’re welcome! Here’s my picks this week.

• Take Miami -14 vs. Syracuse: Coming off a stunning Friday night upset over No. 2 Clemson, Syracuse now has to travel to Miami as a 14-point dog. This is a letdown spot for the Cuse, and Miami will humble them and bring them back to reality.

• Take KU to cover the 37.5 point spread vs. TCU: KU is coming off consecutive 45-plus point losses in B12 play, but under David Beatty, the Jayhawks have played TCU close — including a 1-point loss to the Horned Frogs last season. Easy money!

• Take West Virginia and lay the points vs. Baylor: Mountaineers are 10.5 point favorites over Baylor in Waco, and based on what I saw this weekend, I’m not sure the Bears get anywhere near that line. Ride with Holgorson!