Baylor Preview: Can the Cowboys Ride Momentum into Waco?

The Cowboys (12-5, 2-3), fresh off a dramatic 65-64 come-from-behind win over Texas, head south on Monday to take on a Baylor team (11-6, 1-4) desperate for a win of its own.

If you’re not going to be in the greater Waco area or don’t have tickets, here’s how to tune in.

When/Where: Monday, January 15 at 8 p.m., Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas
TV/crew: ESPNU (Mark Neely, Chris Spatola)
Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
Satellite Radio: Radio: Sirius 81, XM 81 (Baylor radio call)

The Bears have lost four of five but their latest defeat, a 75-65 loss to Iowa State in Ames, was the first to a then-unranked opponent. #Big12Lyfe

Let’s take a look at the two teams, once again, through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

Baylor, like OSU, has struggled to score efficiently this season. The Pokes and Bears rank Nos. 62 and 67, respectively in adjusted offensive efficiency. During the loss in Ames, Baylor shot just 34 percent from the field and 22 percent from 3.

The Bears have also been turnover prone, ranking last in the Big 12 in turnover margin. The Cowboys will need to force Baylor into live-ball turnovers and exchange those for transition points.

Defense

These two defenses can both cause opposing offenses fits, but they stymie in different ways. The Cowboys play pressure man defense and try to extend their coverage and make use of their length on the perimeter. It can lead to a lot of forced turnovers and, at times, oodles of open layups.

The Bear play mostly zone defense which could spell trouble for a Cowboy offense that struggles in the half-court and hasn’t turned in a 40-percent showing from the 3-point line in 10 games (and hasn’t eclipsed 35 percent in over a month).

Baylor also doesn’t allow many trips to the free-throw line. Not great for a Cowboy team which can struggle to get to the line anyway.

Keep an Eye On: Manu Lecomte

The Bear’s leading scorer was having a solid start to his senior year — until Big 12 play started. Lecomte’s field goal percentage dropped from a rosy 45.7 percent in non-conference play to 23.7 in five Big 12 games. His 3-point percentage dropped from 46.2 percent to a rough 20.5 in league play.

Lecomte went 2 of 12 (0 of 7 from 3) in the Bears’ loss to Iowa State. If Baylor’s offense is going to get going this season, Lecomte is going to have to snap out of it. The problem for OSU is that whether it’s luck (the bad kind) or an issue in OSU’s backcourt defensively, the Cowboys have made a habit of giving up career games to Big 12 guards this year. Let’s hope Lecomte doesn’t save his bounce-back game for the Pokes.

Key of the Game: The Offensive Glass

Baylor leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin and have only been out-rebounded as a team four times this season. Oklahoma State averages the second-most offensive rebounds per game but the Bears hold a significant edge in offensive rebounding percentage.

It comes down to each team’s leading glass cleaner. Lo Acuil and Mitchell Solomon represent Nos. 2 and 3 in the Big 12 in offensive boards per game. With the way these two teams have been shooting lately, second-chance points will be huge in the outcome of this game.

Prediction: OSU in a close one

I’m going to probably regret this pick, but I think Boynton brings his boxing gloves and his Cowboys bring the fight to the Bears, riding a little momentum to hit .500 in conference play. KenPom gives the Cowboys just 31-percent chance of rattling all the Scott Drew detractors’ cages with what would be a big road win.