Big 12 over/under predictions

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I’m sort of stealing this from the good folks running the Eye on College Football blog but I thought it’d be fun to run through the over/under list for Big 12 team wins this season and give some predictions.

In alphabetical order (over/under in parentheses)…also, all wins are regular season only.

Baylor (7.5) — Let’s be rational about this. They start the season with Wofford, Buffalo, Louisiana Monroe, and WVU at home. So that’s 4-0. They get Iowa State at home, that’s a win. At Kansas is a win. That’s six. Then they just have to win two of Texas at home, OU at home, at KSU, at TCU, at OSU, and Tech at home. That is definitely happening. Verdict: over 

Iowa State (5.5) — They have Iowa at home and at Tulsa in non-conference so that’s not great. I like Sam Richardson though and they get Texas at home on a Thursday night (automatic W!) I’ll go over but only by .5. Verdict: over

Kansas (3.5) — Set it at .5 and I’d take the under. Heck, set it at 0 and I might take the under. Verdict: under

Kansas State (8.5) — My three rules of thumb when it comes to betting are 1. Don’t bet,  2. If you have to bet, don’t bet against wizards, and 3. Don’t bet against wizards who have eight home games and North Dakota and UMass on the schedule. Verdict: over

Oklahoma (9.5) — I’m torn on this one. I think OU is a little underrated because everybody is talking about how bad they’re going to be and how Blake Bell may or may not be able to throw a forward pass (raises hand). 9.5 is high though, 10 wins is a freaking great season and, well, did you know OU’s defensive line did not bat down a single pass or recover a single fumble last season and that most of them are gone which means the guys who were worse than them are playing this year. Verdict: under

Oklahoma State (10.5) — Yes, the schedule is nice and yes, I think some of the outlier stats last year (turnover differential, for one) will pull back to the median this year but 11 wins is 11 wins and that would mean this team is one of the two best in school history. I just don’t see that. Verdict: under

Texas (9.5) — I think most people either want Texas to be really good (because really good Texas is fun for college football) or really bad (because really bad Texas is good for college football blogs). We always try to force them into one of those two categories when the reality is that they’re probably just kind of good Texas or maybe mediocre Texas. Problem with them being mediocre Texas is that they play three games outside the state of Texas. Verdict: under (I guess, I have no idea)

TCU (9.5) — Going to be worse than people think. Verdict: under

Texas Tech (7.5) — Going to be better than people think. Verdict: over

West Virginia (5.5) — They return 4.5 points from their skill position guys (yikes!) but they also get two auto wins (William & Mary and Georgia State). Normally I would say Holgorsen could trick play his way to four other wins but their defense was really bad last year and to run the offense Holgy runs you need at least a little bit of experience. Verdict: under

Check out the full 2013 OSU football preview here.