Bowl Projections: From Liberty Bowl to Liberty … University?

Oklahoma State will go to a bowl after the 2019 regular season. They locked up their 14th straight postseason trip last Saturday with a 34-27 win over TCU in Stillwater. What bowl they eventually go to though? Well that’s still up in the air.

Here’s a refresher on the Big 12’s bowl ties.

CFP Semis
Sugar
Alamo
Camping World
Texas
Liberty
Cheez-It
First Responder

Now let’s roll through the projections.

Banner Society: OSU vs. Ohio in the First Responder Bowl
CBS Sports: OSU vs. Liberty in the Texas Bowl
McMurphy: OSU vs. Miami in the Texas Bowl
ESPN 1: OSU vs. Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl
ESPN 2: OSU vs. Utah in the Alamo Bowl
247: OSU vs. Central Michigan in the Texas Bowl

• To go from the Liberty Bowl to playing Liberty U. in Houston would be a tough two-year scene for these Cowboys. Yes, the 14-year bowl streak is nice, but unless Hugh Freeze’s hospital bed is getting rolled into Reliant, I’m not sure there’s much that would get me less excited about a postseason tilt than Liberty in the Texas Bowl. Although it would be entertaining to see Liberty in the Texas Bowl and Texas in the Liberty Bowl, which is where a few outlets have the Horns this postseason.

• I think Banner Society generally has the best projections, but I’m not totally sure I’m understanding Ohio in the FRB for OSU. They have the following projections.

OU in the Sugar — Yep
Baylor in the Alamo — Sure
Texas in the Camping World — Probable
TCU in the Texas — Ok
Kansas State in the Liberty — Hmm
Iowa State in the Cheez-It — I guess?
OSU in the First Responder — ?

I guess the weird part here is that theoretically OSU could go 8-4 and get the worst Big 12 bowl because that would be 5-4 in Big 12 play, and you could have like six 5-4 teams. OU is going to win the conference. Barring something crazy, Baylor or Texas is going to finish second, and then you’re left with, like, five of the exact same teams beyond that. Nothing distinguishes them other than how many of their fans will buy tickets and travel so you start to see why TCU would be in the Texas, the Liberty wouldn’t pick OSU two years in a row and then ISU and OSU are the two teams left.

• Utah in the Alamo is seemingly a pipe dream so let’s lay out how OSU could get there.

1. Win out to go 9-3 (6-3)
2. K-State and Baylor beat Texas
3. OU beats Iowa State
4. Iowa State beats K-State

Even then, the Alamo could look at Ehlinger and the Texas thing and be like, “Yeah, we choose that over a team that couldn’t beat Texas Tech.” All that to say, ESPN predicting that Oklahoma State will play in the Alamo Bowl is extremely, extremely optimistic.

• Is there a path to the Big 12 title? I can’t believe I just typed that, but there’s certainly a path to multiple second-place teams having three losses. It’s improbable, but it also exists.

1. Baylor wins out
2. OSU wins out
3. K-State wins out but gets beat by Iowa State

I think if all of that happens and five teams have three losses to end the year, they shoot Bob Bowlsby out of a cannon and depending on how many feet he rises in the air, they select a team to play Baylor based on that. I believe that’s in the bylaws.

(Don’t let it be Liberty in Houston).
(Also don’t let it be Central Michigan in Houston).